Projected annual precipitation trend in Ethiopia under CMIP6 models in the 21st century

Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change and Drought, which affect its water resources, agriculture, and food security. This study aims to study the future variability of annual precipitation in Ethiopia under different climate scenarios. We compared the observed annual Climate Hazard Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data Version two (CHIRPSv2) precipitation with 14 CMIP6 model outputs from 1981 to 2014. The comparison based on statistical tools revealed that the six best-fitted models, namely BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-CM2-SR5, ISPL-CS6A-LR, CESM2, CESM2-WACCM, and GFDL-ESM4, were selected. The ensemble mean of the selected models was used to project the annual precipitation under two socio-economic pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, during the three periods: present (2015–2035), near future (2045–2065), and far future (2075–2100). The projected annual precipitation is expected to show an increasing trend in Ethiopia under both scenarios, with higher rates of change in southwestern and central Ethiopia. The temporal trend of annual precipitation is also expected to be 0.38 mm/year (near future) and 0.48 mm/year (far future) under SSP2-4.5, and 0.23 mm/year (near future) and 0.42 mm/year (far future) under SSP5-8.5. The projected increase in precipitation may have positive effects on water availability, crop production, and hydroelectric power generation in Ethiopia. Moreover, precipitation's spatial and temporal variability may pose challenges for water management, flood control, and adaptation planning.