Modelling the potential impact of climate change on Carapa procera DC. in Benin and Burkina Faso (West Africa)

Carapa procera plays an important socio-cultural and economic role for local people. The species is threatened by several factors including climate changes. This study explored the current and future distribution of the species in Benin and Burkina Faso. The maximum entropy (Maxent) software was used which combined the occurrence data of the species with a set of environmental layers. The future distribution of the species was assessed using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 245 and 585 for 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 periods. Globally, the models performed well, with mean AUC and TSS values of 0.90 and 0.67, respectively, suggesting good performance of the models. A set of five (05) variables drives the distribution of the species with rainfall and isothermality as the most important. For the current distribution, the findings showed that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in Guinea Congolian, and Sudanian zones respectively in Benin and Burkina Faso. The model indicated similar future patterns regardless of the general circulation models (GCMs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The MIROC6 model predicted that the species could lose around 10% of its currently suitable areas, whereas the CNRM model predicted that it would lose 8%. The WAPOK complex was identified to harbor the species in the natural habitats. Our study provides good insight into the current and future distribution of C. procera which can be decisive for the species management.