Impact of climate change on the habitat range and distribution of Cordyla pinnata, Faidherbia albida and Balanites aegyptiaca in Senegal

The survival of agroforestry species in Senegal is threatened by climate change. Hence, it has become important to identify the most endangered species for prioritising conservation efforts. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of three key agroforestry species in Senegal: Faidherbia albida, Balanites aegyptiaca, and Cordyla pinnata. To predict their habitat suitability, we evaluated the performance of five algorithms: Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, Generalised Linear Models, Maximum Entropy, and Support Vector Machines. Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used over four time slices (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100). The dataset included 19 bioclimatic and 12 soil variables, with 5342 species occurrences collected from fieldwork and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility website. The main variables influencing the species distribution were selected based on collinearity, jackknife tests, and their contribution. The results revealed that the Random Forest outperformed other models in terms of performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) greater than 0.95 for all species. The distribution of F. albida and C. pinnata was mainly influenced by precipitation related variables, while that of B. aegyptiaca was mainly influenced by both precipitation and temperature related variables. The current habitat range of F. albida, C. pinnata, and B. aegyptiaca represents 45% (88,515.63 km²), 14.43% (28,381.55 km²) and 29.73% (58,479.53 km²) of the total area of Senegal, respectively. However, the models showed a decrease in the habitat range of C. pinnata, regardless of the scenario or time horizon. The distribution of F. albida is predicted to increase under SSP2-4.5 and decrease under SSP5-8.5. In contrast, B. aegyptiaca is predicted to be more resilient to climate change as its habitat suitability would expand under both scenarios. Hence, conservation efforts should prioritise C. pinnata and, to a lesser extent, F. albida.