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<p>Regional agricultural sectors are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of drought events, resulting in significant economic losses across Europe each year. Therefore, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of how drought affects crop productivity in order to make informed decisions and strategies. We merge data on crop yields and regional farming systems with the Combined Drought Indicator, provided by the European Drought Observatory, using crop masks. We analyse the effects of drought on wheat and maize production across EU regions from 2013 to 2021. Our analysis reveals that each additional 10-day period of drought leads to an average reduction in wheat yield of between 1.62 and 1.74% and a decrease in maize yield of between 0.62 and 0.86%. We find that drought events particularly affect crop yields during the summer period. In the case of maize, we observe that the estimated reduction in yields due to drought is related to drought of second-level severity, with a decrease between 1.62 and 2.33% of the average regional maize yield per additional 10-days of drought. Similarly, our analysis indicates that the summer period has the most significant effect on wheat yields with the negative impact ranging between 5.63 and 5.81%. Drought effects on wheat yields are even higher when taking into consideration the potential endogeneity of the fAPAR component of the drought indicator. Although wheat appears more sensitive to drought at the margin, accounting for the average frequency of drought events and mean crop yields indicates that maize is, on average, more adversely affected by drought than wheat. Our findings indicate that the impacts of drought on agricultural production are multidimensional and context-dependent, shaped by factors such as drought severity, duration, and crop characteristics. These results have important policy implications as they can be used to design proactive drought risk management strategies and tools, minimizing drought impact on regional farming systems in advance.</p>

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Drought Impacts on Agricultural Production Across EU Regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月31日

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  • Andrea Pronti,
  • Edoardo Baldoni,
  • Dolores Rey Vicario,
  • Dimitrios Kremmydas,
  • Pascal Tillie

摘要

Regional agricultural sectors are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of drought events, resulting in significant economic losses across Europe each year. Therefore, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of how drought affects crop productivity in order to make informed decisions and strategies. We merge data on crop yields and regional farming systems with the Combined Drought Indicator, provided by the European Drought Observatory, using crop masks. We analyse the effects of drought on wheat and maize production across EU regions from 2013 to 2021. Our analysis reveals that each additional 10-day period of drought leads to an average reduction in wheat yield of between 1.62 and 1.74% and a decrease in maize yield of between 0.62 and 0.86%. We find that drought events particularly affect crop yields during the summer period. In the case of maize, we observe that the estimated reduction in yields due to drought is related to drought of second-level severity, with a decrease between 1.62 and 2.33% of the average regional maize yield per additional 10-days of drought. Similarly, our analysis indicates that the summer period has the most significant effect on wheat yields with the negative impact ranging between 5.63 and 5.81%. Drought effects on wheat yields are even higher when taking into consideration the potential endogeneity of the fAPAR component of the drought indicator. Although wheat appears more sensitive to drought at the margin, accounting for the average frequency of drought events and mean crop yields indicates that maize is, on average, more adversely affected by drought than wheat. Our findings indicate that the impacts of drought on agricultural production are multidimensional and context-dependent, shaped by factors such as drought severity, duration, and crop characteristics. These results have important policy implications as they can be used to design proactive drought risk management strategies and tools, minimizing drought impact on regional farming systems in advance.