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<p>Anthropogenic activities and climate change often significantly alter the streamflow regimes, jeopardizing essential ecosystem services that support societal well-being. However, evaluation of long-term streamflow sustainability of regulated rivers is limited, particularly in the context of maintaining a safe ecological flow boundary in future climates. The current study demonstrates a comprehensive evaluation framework for assessing the ecological flow sustainability of natural and regulated river reaches of the Rushikulya River, located in the eastern region of India, under future climatic scenarios considering an ecological flow envelope. In this study, a calibrated hydrological model was employed to simulate streamflow during the near future (NF): 2025–2041 and mid future (MF): 2042–2058 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Subsequently, the streamflow violations of the ‘Environmental Flow Envelope (EFE)’ were quantified under baseline and future climate scenarios using four key evaluation metrics: Violation Ratio (VR), Violation Frequency (VF), Reliability, and Resilience. Analysis of the results indicated that the streamflow will frequently violate the EFE, indicated by a high VR (&gt; 2–3 times higher than Baseline), VF (4–5 times higher), and declining reliability-resilience trends, especially under SSP2-4.5 (NF) and SSP5-8.5 (MF). The analysis also shows that the altered river reaches of the Rushikulya River have lower resilience to future climate change than the unaltered river reaches. Overall, this study offers insightful information about future challenges that regulated rivers may face and highlights the need for adaptive management measures to safeguard the ecohydrological integrity of the river basins under future climate.</p>

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Climate Change Impacts on Long-Term Streamflow Sustainability in a Regulated River of Eastern India Using Environmental Flow Envelope

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月6日

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  • Smaranika Mahapatra,
  • Madan Kumar Jha

摘要

Anthropogenic activities and climate change often significantly alter the streamflow regimes, jeopardizing essential ecosystem services that support societal well-being. However, evaluation of long-term streamflow sustainability of regulated rivers is limited, particularly in the context of maintaining a safe ecological flow boundary in future climates. The current study demonstrates a comprehensive evaluation framework for assessing the ecological flow sustainability of natural and regulated river reaches of the Rushikulya River, located in the eastern region of India, under future climatic scenarios considering an ecological flow envelope. In this study, a calibrated hydrological model was employed to simulate streamflow during the near future (NF): 2025–2041 and mid future (MF): 2042–2058 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Subsequently, the streamflow violations of the ‘Environmental Flow Envelope (EFE)’ were quantified under baseline and future climate scenarios using four key evaluation metrics: Violation Ratio (VR), Violation Frequency (VF), Reliability, and Resilience. Analysis of the results indicated that the streamflow will frequently violate the EFE, indicated by a high VR (> 2–3 times higher than Baseline), VF (4–5 times higher), and declining reliability-resilience trends, especially under SSP2-4.5 (NF) and SSP5-8.5 (MF). The analysis also shows that the altered river reaches of the Rushikulya River have lower resilience to future climate change than the unaltered river reaches. Overall, this study offers insightful information about future challenges that regulated rivers may face and highlights the need for adaptive management measures to safeguard the ecohydrological integrity of the river basins under future climate.