Why has Chronic Absenteeism Increased and Enrollment Decreased? Associations with Structural Inequality and Pandemic Factors in California

U.S. schools have changed dramatically from before the pandemic (AY 2018–2019) to after school campus reopening (AY 2021–2022). These changes are most visible through the sharp increase in chronic absenteeism and decrease in enrollment in K-12 public schools. This study specifically focuses on California and two outcomes of interest, changes in chronic absenteeism rates and changes in school enrollment. We examined the associations of each outcome in separate models with indicators of structural inequality (school racial composition, school free and reduced priced meals [FRPM], county unemployment rates) and pandemic factors (county-level COVID-19 incidence rates, learning modality). Findings describe how increases in FRPM and school racial composition, two indicators of structural inequality, were directly associated with chronic absenteeism. In addition, although learning modality (e.g., in-person, remote) was not a significant predictor, higher COVID-19 incidence rates were associated with lower chronic absenteeism. Urbanicity and community unemployment predicted declines in enrollment, but not school racial composition, FRPM, community level COVID-19 incidence or learning mode. Findings can support school psychologists in investigations of the root causes of chronic absenteeism, changes in school enrollment, and inform the development of appropriately targeted interventions that consider the structure contexts of systemic inequities and the long-lasting effects of the pandemic.