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Purpose of Review <p>The paper aims to explore the effects Sea-Level Rise (SLR) will have on coastal Caribbean ecosystem services. To this end, it conducts a multimethod analysis of two biodiversity hotspots recognized for their regional significance, vulnerability, and productivity.</p> Recent Findings <p>Tropical coastal marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of SLR, which intensifies coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. These environmental changes will directly affect critical ecosystem services and the communities that depend on them. Additionally, the findings suggest that small island ecosystems are more vulnerable to these effects compared to their continental counterparts.</p> Summary <p>This study evaluates the projected impacts of SLR on critical ecosystem services supporting coastal communities in the Colombian Caribbean. Focusing on two key biodiversity hotspots—the Seaflower and Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta Biosphere Reserves—we modeled extreme coastal sea levels and developed GIS-based flood maps under IPCC scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2050 and 2100. These projections were used to inform a structured expert elicitation process aimed at assessing potential disruptions to ecosystem services. Findings reveal distinct patterns of social and ecological vulnerability across sites, underscoring the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to protect both biodiversity and human well-being.</p>

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Informing Coastal Futures: Sea Level Rise and Ecosystem Service Disruption in Caribbean Biodiversity Hotspots

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月26日

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  • Rafael Hurtado-Valdivieso,
  • Jose Ernesto Mancera-Pineda,
  • Ariadna Martin,
  • Paola Quintero,
  • Daniel Ruíz,
  • Jacopo Baggio

摘要

Purpose of Review

The paper aims to explore the effects Sea-Level Rise (SLR) will have on coastal Caribbean ecosystem services. To this end, it conducts a multimethod analysis of two biodiversity hotspots recognized for their regional significance, vulnerability, and productivity.

Recent Findings

Tropical coastal marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of SLR, which intensifies coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. These environmental changes will directly affect critical ecosystem services and the communities that depend on them. Additionally, the findings suggest that small island ecosystems are more vulnerable to these effects compared to their continental counterparts.

Summary

This study evaluates the projected impacts of SLR on critical ecosystem services supporting coastal communities in the Colombian Caribbean. Focusing on two key biodiversity hotspots—the Seaflower and Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta Biosphere Reserves—we modeled extreme coastal sea levels and developed GIS-based flood maps under IPCC scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2050 and 2100. These projections were used to inform a structured expert elicitation process aimed at assessing potential disruptions to ecosystem services. Findings reveal distinct patterns of social and ecological vulnerability across sites, underscoring the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to protect both biodiversity and human well-being.