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Objectives <p>The relationship between the patterns of WC trajectory and fragility fracture in the Chinese population remains unclear. This prospective study investigated the effect of long-term WC trajectory on fragility fracture based on community-based cohort.</p> Methods <p>This prospective study was conducted based on the Kailuan Study and included a total of 47,288 participants (mean age, 56.7 years) free of fragility fracture and with repeated measurements of WC from 2006 to 2014. The WC trajectories (2006–2014) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), and three trajectories were identified: low-stable group (<i>n</i> = 12,546), medium-stable group (<i>n</i> = 28,532), and high-stable group (<i>n</i> = 6,210). The association between WC trajectories and incident fragility fractures was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, with stratified analyses and interaction tests conducted by sex (male/female) and age (≤ 65 years / &gt; 65 years).</p> Results <p>During an average follow-up of 8.31 years, 663 participants developed fragility fractures. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, compared with those in the low-stable group, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident fragility fracture in the medium-stable group and high-stable group were 1.25 (1.01–1.54) and 1.55 (1.12–2.14), respectively. In Individuals aged ≤ 65 years, the medium group and high-stable group had a 35% (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03–1.77) and 98% (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.32–2.97) higher fracture risk, respectively.</p> Conclusions <p>WC trajectories were significantly associated with the risk of fragility fracture, and the association was more evident in aged ≤ 65 years population.</p>

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Associations of long-term waist circumference trajectories with the risk of fragility fractures: a prospective cohort study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月16日

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  • Lu Guo,
  • Shuohua Chen,
  • Nan Zhang,
  • Rui Tang,
  • Wenchao Yao,
  • Shaoxuan Wei,
  • Xiaoli Hou,
  • Lei Xing,
  • Liu Zhang,
  • Shouling Wu,
  • Faming Tian

摘要

Objectives

The relationship between the patterns of WC trajectory and fragility fracture in the Chinese population remains unclear. This prospective study investigated the effect of long-term WC trajectory on fragility fracture based on community-based cohort.

Methods

This prospective study was conducted based on the Kailuan Study and included a total of 47,288 participants (mean age, 56.7 years) free of fragility fracture and with repeated measurements of WC from 2006 to 2014. The WC trajectories (2006–2014) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), and three trajectories were identified: low-stable group (n = 12,546), medium-stable group (n = 28,532), and high-stable group (n = 6,210). The association between WC trajectories and incident fragility fractures was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, with stratified analyses and interaction tests conducted by sex (male/female) and age (≤ 65 years / > 65 years).

Results

During an average follow-up of 8.31 years, 663 participants developed fragility fractures. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, compared with those in the low-stable group, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident fragility fracture in the medium-stable group and high-stable group were 1.25 (1.01–1.54) and 1.55 (1.12–2.14), respectively. In Individuals aged ≤ 65 years, the medium group and high-stable group had a 35% (HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03–1.77) and 98% (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.32–2.97) higher fracture risk, respectively.

Conclusions

WC trajectories were significantly associated with the risk of fragility fracture, and the association was more evident in aged ≤ 65 years population.