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Background <p>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-related cirrhosis has become an important global public health concern, particularly in certain vulnerable populations, with its incidence continuing to rise. This study aims to systematically analyze the epidemiological trends of MASLD-related cirrhosis and predict future incidence rates. The findings will provide critical scientific evidence to inform effective prevention and intervention strategies to address the public health challenges posed by this disease.</p> Methods <p>The burden of MASLD-related cirrhosis globally, regionally, and by country was analyzed from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to analyze trends in different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts. Health inequalities were measured using the inequality slope index and concentration index. The frontier analysis was conducted based on development levels to estimate achievable outcomes. The ARIMA model was used to predict future incidence and mortality rates.</p> Results <p>Compared to 1990, the global burden of MASLD-related cirrhosis increased by 2021, with the number of cases reaching 1.267&#xa0;billion (95% UI: 1.158 to 1.380&#xa0;billion) and global deaths at 97,400 (95% UI: 69,500 to 130,200). The risk of developing MASLD-related cirrhosis increased with age, peaking in middle-aged and older adults, and then gradually declining with further aging. Frontier analysis revealed that countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), such as Somalia, Niger, Papua New Guinea, Yemen, and Timor-Leste, experienced heavier disease burdens with limited control measures. ARIMA predictions indicated that the incidence of MASLD-related cirrhosis will continue to rise, while mortality rates will remain stable.</p> Conclusions <p>MASLD-related cirrhosis has become a significant global public health challenge. In recent years, the global burden of the disease has been increasing due to changes in lifestyle and the rising burden of chronic diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Health disparities remain prominent, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of this disease across diverse populations.</p>

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Time trends and health inequalities of cirrhosis caused by metabolic Dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease from 1990 to 2021: A global burden of disease study

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月24日

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  • Min Wu,
  • Yifeng Li,
  • Dong Liu,
  • Weinong Wen,
  • Yan Min,
  • Qiang Su,
  • Zhenxiang An,
  • Xiaofang Yang

摘要

Background

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)-related cirrhosis has become an important global public health concern, particularly in certain vulnerable populations, with its incidence continuing to rise. This study aims to systematically analyze the epidemiological trends of MASLD-related cirrhosis and predict future incidence rates. The findings will provide critical scientific evidence to inform effective prevention and intervention strategies to address the public health challenges posed by this disease.

Methods

The burden of MASLD-related cirrhosis globally, regionally, and by country was analyzed from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to analyze trends in different age groups, time periods, and birth cohorts. Health inequalities were measured using the inequality slope index and concentration index. The frontier analysis was conducted based on development levels to estimate achievable outcomes. The ARIMA model was used to predict future incidence and mortality rates.

Results

Compared to 1990, the global burden of MASLD-related cirrhosis increased by 2021, with the number of cases reaching 1.267 billion (95% UI: 1.158 to 1.380 billion) and global deaths at 97,400 (95% UI: 69,500 to 130,200). The risk of developing MASLD-related cirrhosis increased with age, peaking in middle-aged and older adults, and then gradually declining with further aging. Frontier analysis revealed that countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), such as Somalia, Niger, Papua New Guinea, Yemen, and Timor-Leste, experienced heavier disease burdens with limited control measures. ARIMA predictions indicated that the incidence of MASLD-related cirrhosis will continue to rise, while mortality rates will remain stable.

Conclusions

MASLD-related cirrhosis has become a significant global public health challenge. In recent years, the global burden of the disease has been increasing due to changes in lifestyle and the rising burden of chronic diseases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Health disparities remain prominent, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the impact of this disease across diverse populations.