Prediabetes Progression and Reversion: Social Factors and Racial/Ethnic Differences

Racial and ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by diabetes. Social characteristics, such as family structure, social support, and loneliness, may contribute to these health disparities. In a nationally representative sample of diverse older adults, we evaluated longitudinal rates of both progression from prediabetes to diabetes and reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia.

Using the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study (2006–2014), our sample included 2625 follow-up intervals with a prediabetes baseline (provided by 2229 individuals). We analyzed 4-year progression and reversion rates using HbA1c and reported presence or absence of physician-diagnosed diabetes. We utilized chi-square and logistic regression models to determine how race/ethnicity and social variables influenced progression or reversion controlling for comorbidities and demographics.

Overall, progression to diabetes was less common than reversion (17% vs. 36%). Compared to Whites, Hispanic/Latino respondents had higher odds of progression to diabetes from prediabetes while Black respondents had lower odds of reversion, adjusting for physical health and demographics. For social variables, Hispanics/Latinos had the highest reliance on and openness with family and the lowest rates of loneliness. The inclusion of social variables in regression models reduced the odds of progression for Hispanics/Latinos but did not alter Black’s lower rate of reversion.

Hispanic/Latinos and Blacks not only had different transition pathways leading to diabetes, but also had different social profiles, affecting Hispanic/Latino progression, but not Black reversion. These differences in the influence of social variables on diabetes risk may inform the design of culturally-specific efforts to reduce disparities in diabetes burden.