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<p>Rubella is a contagious viral infection that has serious public health consequences, especially for pregnant women and their children. This paper proposes a deterministic compartmental model for understanding rubella transmission dynamics, which includes critical factors such as vaccination rate, vaccine waning rate, recovery rate, and progression rate from infection to severe cases. We apply the proposed model to actual rubella data from Nigeria to analyze the epidemic dynamics within the Nigerian population. We utilized the rubella case reports from Nigeria covering January to December 2020 from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control to obtain the best model fit; this help to determine the accuracy of the proposed model’s representation to the real-world data. To discover key characteristics that influence disease propagation, sensitivity analysis is performed using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient approach. When <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the disease-free equilibrium remains globally asymptotically stable, while for <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the system transitions to an endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations show that achieving at least 70% vaccination coverage minimizes cumulative new rubella cases. However, vaccine waning increases the disease burden, highlighting the importance of high immunization rates and prompt booster vaccinations. These findings highlight the significance of strategic immunization plans for effective rubella control.</p>

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Analysis and dynamics of rubella with control strategies: a data-driven mathematical modeling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月27日

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  • Olumuyiwa James Peter,
  • Nitu Kumari,
  • Arun Kumar,
  • Benjamin Idoko Omede,
  • Oyinlola Patricia Ogunmola,
  • Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun,
  • Govind Godara

摘要

Rubella is a contagious viral infection that has serious public health consequences, especially for pregnant women and their children. This paper proposes a deterministic compartmental model for understanding rubella transmission dynamics, which includes critical factors such as vaccination rate, vaccine waning rate, recovery rate, and progression rate from infection to severe cases. We apply the proposed model to actual rubella data from Nigeria to analyze the epidemic dynamics within the Nigerian population. We utilized the rubella case reports from Nigeria covering January to December 2020 from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control to obtain the best model fit; this help to determine the accuracy of the proposed model’s representation to the real-world data. To discover key characteristics that influence disease propagation, sensitivity analysis is performed using the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient approach. When \(R_0 < 1\) R 0 < 1 , the disease-free equilibrium remains globally asymptotically stable, while for \(R_0 > 1\) R 0 > 1 , the system transitions to an endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations show that achieving at least 70% vaccination coverage minimizes cumulative new rubella cases. However, vaccine waning increases the disease burden, highlighting the importance of high immunization rates and prompt booster vaccinations. These findings highlight the significance of strategic immunization plans for effective rubella control.