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<p>Currently, an increasing number of regions of the world are affected by infectious diseases transmitted by <i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Aedes albopictus</i> mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. In this context, it is increasingly relevant to estimate explicit measures that integrate key entomological, epidemiological, and social information to quantify the adverse effects of these epidemics in large regions with spatial structure. One of these measures that can summarize this information is the final epidemic size, which estimates the number of people infected during an infectious outbreak. Some studies have explicitly approximated this measure for this type of disease both in isolated populations and in two populations connected by human mobility. In this study, we propose to extend the estimation of the final epidemic size by applying two methodologies presented in epidemiological mathematics to <i>n</i>-dimensional metapopulation networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of two different network structures on the accuracy of the estimates obtained. The results show that the developed measure provides reasonable and consistent approximations across both networks under study, in relation to the solution of the analyzed model, making it a valuable tool for identifying areas of high epidemic vulnerability within the networks studied. Furthermore, these estimates can be useful for designing simple control strategies aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic consequences of such epidemics in highly vulnerable regions.</p>

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Estimating the final size of vector-borne epidemics in metapopulation networks: methodologies and comparisons

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月5日

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  • U. J. Giménez-Mujica,
  • J. Velázquez-Castro,
  • A. Anzo-Hernández,
  • T. P. Herrera-Ramírez,
  • I. Barradas

摘要

Currently, an increasing number of regions of the world are affected by infectious diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. In this context, it is increasingly relevant to estimate explicit measures that integrate key entomological, epidemiological, and social information to quantify the adverse effects of these epidemics in large regions with spatial structure. One of these measures that can summarize this information is the final epidemic size, which estimates the number of people infected during an infectious outbreak. Some studies have explicitly approximated this measure for this type of disease both in isolated populations and in two populations connected by human mobility. In this study, we propose to extend the estimation of the final epidemic size by applying two methodologies presented in epidemiological mathematics to n-dimensional metapopulation networks. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of two different network structures on the accuracy of the estimates obtained. The results show that the developed measure provides reasonable and consistent approximations across both networks under study, in relation to the solution of the analyzed model, making it a valuable tool for identifying areas of high epidemic vulnerability within the networks studied. Furthermore, these estimates can be useful for designing simple control strategies aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic consequences of such epidemics in highly vulnerable regions.