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<p>An enhanced three-dimensional method was developed to predict ground settlement induced by shield tunneling. This approach modifies the classical Peck formula by introducing a dynamic settlement trough width parameter that is functionally dependent on the longitudinal distance from the excavation face. This modification allows for the characterization of the complete spatio-temporal evolution of the settlement field. Validation with field-measured data confirmed the high accuracy of the method, achieving a mean squared error of 1.60 and a coefficient of determination (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) of 0.984. Compared to finite element simulations, the proposed method improved prediction accuracy by a factor of 6.5 and kept the mean absolute errors for longitudinal and transverse settlements within 10.06% and 15%, respectively. A subsequent parametric analysis showed that the maximum settlement had a quadratic relationship with both soil depth and tunnel radius, with the latter being the dominant factor. The developed method offers a more accurate and computationally efficient prediction tool for practical tunneling engineering.</p>

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Ground Settlement Prediction in Shield Tunnels Through Modified Trough Width Coefficient

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月25日

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  • Xiong Wu,
  • Jiangbo Xu,
  • Shaowei Wang,
  • Yu Qi,
  • Xianglong Zeng,
  • Wei Qiao,
  • Jisheng Li

摘要

An enhanced three-dimensional method was developed to predict ground settlement induced by shield tunneling. This approach modifies the classical Peck formula by introducing a dynamic settlement trough width parameter that is functionally dependent on the longitudinal distance from the excavation face. This modification allows for the characterization of the complete spatio-temporal evolution of the settlement field. Validation with field-measured data confirmed the high accuracy of the method, achieving a mean squared error of 1.60 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.984. Compared to finite element simulations, the proposed method improved prediction accuracy by a factor of 6.5 and kept the mean absolute errors for longitudinal and transverse settlements within 10.06% and 15%, respectively. A subsequent parametric analysis showed that the maximum settlement had a quadratic relationship with both soil depth and tunnel radius, with the latter being the dominant factor. The developed method offers a more accurate and computationally efficient prediction tool for practical tunneling engineering.