<p>This study proposed a model for predicting the probabilistic sliding displacement of geosynthetic-reinforced soil slopes. A numerical simulation was illustrated as an example to calculate the seismic displacement based on three types of Newmark analysis. A synthetic dataset including 972 numerical simulations was generated for statistical analysis by data derived from real-time strong-ground motions of 30 worldwide earthquakes. An investigation into the relationship between reinforced slope properties and motion characteristics was performed using a parametric analysis. It was concluded that coupled analysis calculated higher values for the earthquake-induced sliding displacement of geosynthetic-reinforced soil slopes. In addition, the probabilistic assessment indicated that soil friction angle is more influential on sliding displacement than the other random variables. A cumulative distribution function was constructed for estimating probabilistic seismic displacement based on 5000 Latin-hypercube sampling.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>