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<p>Nipah virus (NiV), a zoonotic virus is now global concern because of its deadly effect on human population and the absence of an effective vaccine. To date, no effective antiviral treatment is available but only supportive care is given to manage the symptoms of the disease. In this study, a mathematical model is developed to understand the dynamics of NiV transmission from infected fruit bat to human via contaminated food products and find a suitable optimal control strategy to prevent the outbreak keeping the implementation costs low. Two control functions are considered. One is reducing human-to-human transmission, which is most expensive strategy, and another is minimizing exposure to contaminated food through media awareness, which is comparatively low-cost strategy. Qualitative analysis of the model with fixed control was studied and validated through numerically. Global stability analysis of the model was carried out by choosing suitable Lyapunov function. The disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) is less than or equal to unity and when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {R}_0&gt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Global sensitivity analysis of model parameters was performed by combined Latin Hypercube Sampling Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (LHS-PRCC) method. To choose an optimal control strategy for the prevention of NiV outbreak, we formulated an objective function and solved numerically by using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Also, a cost-effective analysis for different control strategies is presented graphically.</p>

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An Optimal Control Model for Nipah Virus Transmission from Infected Fruit Bat to Human via Contaminated Food Products

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Krishnendu Barman,
  • Raghu Nandan Giri

摘要

Nipah virus (NiV), a zoonotic virus is now global concern because of its deadly effect on human population and the absence of an effective vaccine. To date, no effective antiviral treatment is available but only supportive care is given to manage the symptoms of the disease. In this study, a mathematical model is developed to understand the dynamics of NiV transmission from infected fruit bat to human via contaminated food products and find a suitable optimal control strategy to prevent the outbreak keeping the implementation costs low. Two control functions are considered. One is reducing human-to-human transmission, which is most expensive strategy, and another is minimizing exposure to contaminated food through media awareness, which is comparatively low-cost strategy. Qualitative analysis of the model with fixed control was studied and validated through numerically. Global stability analysis of the model was carried out by choosing suitable Lyapunov function. The disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number ( \(\mathcal {R}_0\) R 0 ) is less than or equal to unity and when \(\mathcal {R}_0> 1\) R 0 > 1 the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Global sensitivity analysis of model parameters was performed by combined Latin Hypercube Sampling Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (LHS-PRCC) method. To choose an optimal control strategy for the prevention of NiV outbreak, we formulated an objective function and solved numerically by using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Also, a cost-effective analysis for different control strategies is presented graphically.