<p>One of the deadliest diseases in developed and underdeveloped countries is pneumonia. It is caused by a bacterial infection that inflames the air sacs in lungs, and without proper treatment, it may lead to death. Children under the age of five and elderly over 65 are particularly vulnerable to contracting the disease, often due to inadequate nutrition. A mathematical model incorporating vaccination has been developed to evaluate the impact of effective pneumonia treatment on primary infections. The model is validated using annual data from India <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\((2010--2021)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>2010</mn> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mn>2021</mn> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> by performing the maximum likelihood estimation. Additionally, the media’s role in advising people on precautionary measures is factored into preventing the spread of pneumonia. The endemic equilibrium is stable when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0 &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, whereas the disease-free equilibrium is stable when reproduction number is below one. The model shows a backward and forward bifurcation when <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0 = 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, indicating that the disease will not be eliminated when <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0 &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Sensitivity analysis reveals that transmission and contact rates are the most influential parameters in determining the number of infected individuals at the endemic equilibrium. Administering the <i>Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine</i> (PCV) to newborns could reduce future infections, and early treatment for infected individuals is necessary to prevent large-scale outbreaks of pneumonia in the long term.</p>

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Analyzing the dynamics of pneumonia vaccination in India (2010–2021)

  • VijayaPrabha Saravanan,
  • Rajivganthi Chinnathambi

摘要

One of the deadliest diseases in developed and underdeveloped countries is pneumonia. It is caused by a bacterial infection that inflames the air sacs in lungs, and without proper treatment, it may lead to death. Children under the age of five and elderly over 65 are particularly vulnerable to contracting the disease, often due to inadequate nutrition. A mathematical model incorporating vaccination has been developed to evaluate the impact of effective pneumonia treatment on primary infections. The model is validated using annual data from India \((2010--2021)\) ( 2010 - - 2021 ) by performing the maximum likelihood estimation. Additionally, the media’s role in advising people on precautionary measures is factored into preventing the spread of pneumonia. The endemic equilibrium is stable when \({\mathcal {R}}_0 > 1\) R 0 > 1 , whereas the disease-free equilibrium is stable when reproduction number is below one. The model shows a backward and forward bifurcation when \({\mathcal {R}}_0 = 1\) R 0 = 1 , indicating that the disease will not be eliminated when \({\mathcal {R}}_0 < 1\) R 0 < 1 . Sensitivity analysis reveals that transmission and contact rates are the most influential parameters in determining the number of infected individuals at the endemic equilibrium. Administering the Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) to newborns could reduce future infections, and early treatment for infected individuals is necessary to prevent large-scale outbreaks of pneumonia in the long term.