<p>Measles, an exceedingly contagious but vaccine-preventable disease, is a global peril causing an overwhelming (in excess of 95 <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40435_2025_1861_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="15" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\%\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mo>%</mo> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) count of deaths, especially of younger children taking place in lousy economic countries. In countries with poor socio-economic ambience, the health infrastructure is very fragile. Measles infection in adults having no vaccination against Measles or the adults whose immunity against Measles is waned is in substantial risk of being infected, and the infection might be life-threatening. The transmission chain of Measles in adults causes disruption in economic stability of low economy countries via disruption in labor supply chain. To systematically measure the impact of Measles transmission in economy of a geographical region (specially of low economy) and the effect of optimal vaccination level in mitigating the transmission, a novel seven-compartment ODE deterministic <i>SVMIRPE</i> model is proposed in the present study. The qualitative behaviors of the model are studied, and the basic reproduction number of the model is computed. The steady states of the system are investigated, and we perform stability analysis of the system around the steady states. To ensure the maximum effectiveness of Measles vaccination with minimum cost, optimal control strategies are determined suggesting utilization of the vaccine on global basis. Moreover, we upgrade our proposed model to an impulsive differential equation model to find optimal vaccination time intervals and to determine the threshold count of infected persons for mass vaccination. The numerical results confirm the analytical predictions and illustrate that the model can predict Measles dynamics under different economic and vaccination scenarios. This epidemiological study provides practical guidance for health policy makers in making socio-economic policies of cost-efficient mass vaccination and in planning long-term control of Measles.</p>

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Effect of vaccination to control measles epidemic in light of economic progression

  • Piu Samui,
  • Samapti Mondal,
  • Jayanta Mondal,
  • Amar Nath Chatterjee

摘要

Measles, an exceedingly contagious but vaccine-preventable disease, is a global peril causing an overwhelming (in excess of 95 \(\%\) % ) count of deaths, especially of younger children taking place in lousy economic countries. In countries with poor socio-economic ambience, the health infrastructure is very fragile. Measles infection in adults having no vaccination against Measles or the adults whose immunity against Measles is waned is in substantial risk of being infected, and the infection might be life-threatening. The transmission chain of Measles in adults causes disruption in economic stability of low economy countries via disruption in labor supply chain. To systematically measure the impact of Measles transmission in economy of a geographical region (specially of low economy) and the effect of optimal vaccination level in mitigating the transmission, a novel seven-compartment ODE deterministic SVMIRPE model is proposed in the present study. The qualitative behaviors of the model are studied, and the basic reproduction number of the model is computed. The steady states of the system are investigated, and we perform stability analysis of the system around the steady states. To ensure the maximum effectiveness of Measles vaccination with minimum cost, optimal control strategies are determined suggesting utilization of the vaccine on global basis. Moreover, we upgrade our proposed model to an impulsive differential equation model to find optimal vaccination time intervals and to determine the threshold count of infected persons for mass vaccination. The numerical results confirm the analytical predictions and illustrate that the model can predict Measles dynamics under different economic and vaccination scenarios. This epidemiological study provides practical guidance for health policy makers in making socio-economic policies of cost-efficient mass vaccination and in planning long-term control of Measles.