Mathematical modeling and analysis of the effect of vaccination and temperature on the dynamic transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
摘要
The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), whose pathogen is SARS-CoV-2, has wreaked enormous havoc around the world. The effects of this disease have been widespread in Asia, Europe, America and Africa. This spread has prompted the World Health Organization to organize vaccination campaigns to ensure general population immunity, with the aim of reaching at least 70%. Given that vaccination coverage against COVID-19 is low in certain populations, we propose in this article a mathematical model to simultaneously analyze the impact of the vaccine and compliance with barrier measures against COVID-19. Our aim is to determine the proportions of people who should be vaccinated and those who should be made aware of the need to comply with hygiene rules, in order to effectively control the coronavirus epidemic, even in a population with low vaccination coverage. In this paper, we also take into account the impact of temperature on the dynamic transmission of COVID-19. To this end, we propose a mathematical model for studying the effects of temperature and vaccination on the coronavirus’s transmission dynamics. A non-autonomous system of ordinary differential equations describes the model. To study the asymptotic behavior of the system’s solutions describing the transmission dynamics of this disease, threshold parameters have been established. To illustrate how new cases will change depending on the population’s vaccination rate, computer simulations have been run to check that the coronavirus epidemic can be controlled even for a population that disregards the restrictions set by the WHO, but has a vaccination rate of at least 70%. However, it is advised to sensitize the population to observe safety precautions in public places with the vaccination rate below 70%. At least 50% of the population must adhere to the boundaries measures for a population with about 20% vaccination coverage rate.