<p>The surge limit is the minimum stable mass flow of centrifugal compressors. To ensure the safety and performance of air supply systems in fuel cell vehicles, it is crucial to predict the surge limit. Moreover, theoretically explaining the mechanism of centrifugal compressor surge is among the most challenging research. In this study, a dynamic model of the air supply system is applied, and the existence of the limit cycle is rigorously proved in mathematics. Based on Hopf bifurcation theory, the analysis of system stability is performed, and hence the mechanism of compressor surge is theoretically explained. After that, a novel analytical model for predicting the surge limit is proposed. The model addresses the weaknesses of the traditional method which cannot consider the effect of system dimensions. Furthermore, compared to computational fluid dynamics methods, the calculation time is drastically reduced. At last, the effect of system dimensions on the surge limit is investigated through the prediction model and measurement is taken as verification. The results show that the air supply system is more stable by increasing the pipe length but less stable by increasing the plenum volume at a constant rotational speed. This study explains the surge mechanism theoretically and provides a fast and accurate approach to predict the surge limit, which also holds for other centrifugal compressors in energy storage systems.</p>