Pathways to net zero: scaling renewable energy and hydrogen storage in New Zealand
摘要
Reaching net-zero emissions in New Zealand, similar to the efforts in the United Kingdom, as recently highlighted by the British Royal Society, demands a significant expansion of renewable energy production. Primarily, this expansion will focus on wind energy, supplemented to a lesser extent by solar power. Moreover, it necessitates the implementation of large-scale, long-term, and energy storage systems, predominantly utilizing hydrogen. While utilizing geothermal and hydropower for supplementary generation, along with batteries and pumped hydro for storage, is advantageous, the primary focus must be on scaling up wind and solar generation alongside hydrogen storage. Determining the required storage capacity is not solely reliant on seasonal fluctuations in wind and solar generation, which are relatively straightforward to account for. Instead, it must also consider longer-term variability encompassing interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations, which pose greater challenges. As a rough estimate, New Zealand is estimated to require approximately 166 TWh of dispatchable electricity to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This electricity is anticipated to be derived mainly from a total installed capacity of 63–73 GW, with 80% attributed to wind and 20% to solar, resulting in the generation of 216–256 TWh of non-dispatchable electricity. The projected capacity for hydrogen energy storage falls within the range of 29–58 TWh, necessitating electrolyzers with a power range of 29–58 GW.