<p>This paper presents a novel malaria transmission model that explicitly incorporates the often-overlooked role of male mosquitoes in the infection dynamics. By extending a coupled vector-host framework, we derive a mosquito reproduction threshold, denoted by <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="28" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_m\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, which governs mosquito population persistence. We demonstrate that the trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="58" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_m \le 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> <mo>≤</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, leading to mosquito extinction, while the non-trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="58" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_m &gt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, allowing mosquito populations to persist. Additionally, we derive an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and investigate the conditions for the existence and stability of endemic equilibria. Our analysis reveals the presence of a backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium can coexist with a stable endemic equilibrium when <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq5.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="53" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0 &lt; 1\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, implying that reducing <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> below unity may not be sufficient to eliminate malaria. Furthermore, we establish conditions for the global stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through sensitivity analysis, we identify the parameters that most significantly influence <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="28" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_m\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40314_2025_3270_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="22" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({\mathcal {R}}_0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi mathvariant="script">R</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, providing insights into key biological and epidemiological drivers of malaria transmission. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results and illustrate how variations in mating-related parameters can affect mosquito population dynamics and malaria persistence.</p>

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Mathematical modeling of malaria transmission taking into account the role of male mosquitoes

  • Abdoulaye Kaboré,
  • Boureima Sangaré,
  • Bakary Traoré

摘要

This paper presents a novel malaria transmission model that explicitly incorporates the often-overlooked role of male mosquitoes in the infection dynamics. By extending a coupled vector-host framework, we derive a mosquito reproduction threshold, denoted by \({\mathcal {R}}_m\) R m , which governs mosquito population persistence. We demonstrate that the trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when \({\mathcal {R}}_m \le 1\) R m 1 , leading to mosquito extinction, while the non-trivial equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if \({\mathcal {R}}_m > 1\) R m > 1 , allowing mosquito populations to persist. Additionally, we derive an analytical expression for the basic reproduction number \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) R 0 and investigate the conditions for the existence and stability of endemic equilibria. Our analysis reveals the presence of a backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium can coexist with a stable endemic equilibrium when \({\mathcal {R}}_0 < 1\) R 0 < 1 , implying that reducing \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) R 0 below unity may not be sufficient to eliminate malaria. Furthermore, we establish conditions for the global stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through sensitivity analysis, we identify the parameters that most significantly influence \({\mathcal {R}}_m\) R m and \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) R 0 , providing insights into key biological and epidemiological drivers of malaria transmission. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results and illustrate how variations in mating-related parameters can affect mosquito population dynamics and malaria persistence.