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<p>The official commencement of the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project (LYT project), the world’s largest and highest-investment hydropower initiative to date, signals China’s transition into a new phase of clean energy development. With an estimated investment of approximately 1.2&#xa0;trillion CNY, the project establishes a new global benchmark for hydropower scale and is expected to exert considerable impacts on clean energy expansion, driving the industrial and economic development. This study uses the China Energy-Economy Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CEEGE) model to assess the macroeconomic, mitigation cost and energy system impacts of the LYT project in the context of China’s carbon neutrality target. The results show that: (1) the operation of the LYT project will increase clean electricity supply, providing low-cost power that reduces electricity expenses across industries and enables the achievement of carbon neutrality at lower mitigation costs; (2) the stability of hydropower output reduces dependence on intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar power, as well as on fossil fuel generation, thereby facilitating a smooth energy transition and decreasing external reliance on fossil fuels; and (3) the project generates positive macroeconomic effects during both the construction and operation phases, with extensive output gains transmitted through industrial linkages. The construction phase will significantly stimulate output growth in the construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, while the operational phase will further promote expansion in the services, heavy industries and power transmission and distribution sectors, creating sustained economic value.</p>

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Comprehensive Benefit Analysis of the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project: Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Jing Zhang,
  • Xin Wen,
  • Sheng-Yao Yang,
  • Yu Liu

摘要

The official commencement of the Lower Yarlung Tsangpo Hydropower Project (LYT project), the world’s largest and highest-investment hydropower initiative to date, signals China’s transition into a new phase of clean energy development. With an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY, the project establishes a new global benchmark for hydropower scale and is expected to exert considerable impacts on clean energy expansion, driving the industrial and economic development. This study uses the China Energy-Economy Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CEEGE) model to assess the macroeconomic, mitigation cost and energy system impacts of the LYT project in the context of China’s carbon neutrality target. The results show that: (1) the operation of the LYT project will increase clean electricity supply, providing low-cost power that reduces electricity expenses across industries and enables the achievement of carbon neutrality at lower mitigation costs; (2) the stability of hydropower output reduces dependence on intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar power, as well as on fossil fuel generation, thereby facilitating a smooth energy transition and decreasing external reliance on fossil fuels; and (3) the project generates positive macroeconomic effects during both the construction and operation phases, with extensive output gains transmitted through industrial linkages. The construction phase will significantly stimulate output growth in the construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, while the operational phase will further promote expansion in the services, heavy industries and power transmission and distribution sectors, creating sustained economic value.