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<p>Fragmentation of objects in orbit critically endangers space operations. A detailed understanding of the underlying causes of fragmentation events is necessary for the development of mitigation procedures. However, almost 30% of all breakup events over the past 10 years are defined by ESA as <i>unknown</i>, demanding deeper investigation. Fragmentation analysis is plagued by limited available observational and orbital data, that is sometimes collected several orbital periods, or even months, after an event. Furthermore, data carries uncertainties which increase in positional state when propagated backward to the time of the fragmentation event. An examination of three Atlas V Centaur upper stage fragmentation events in 2018 and 2019 is performed in this work. Uncertainty is represented using Unscented Transform sigma points as deterministic samples, and fragment distributions relative to the parent spacecraft are evaluated to gain insight into the fragment dynamics at the estimated break-up time. A comparison is drawn between the conclusions of this research and earlier work by the same authors that diagnosed the event causes based on only the means of the distributions.</p>

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Investigation of Atlas V Centaur Upper Stage Fragmentation Events with Uncertainty Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月25日

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  • Arly Black,
  • Carolin Frueh,
  • Thomas Schildknecht

摘要

Fragmentation of objects in orbit critically endangers space operations. A detailed understanding of the underlying causes of fragmentation events is necessary for the development of mitigation procedures. However, almost 30% of all breakup events over the past 10 years are defined by ESA as unknown, demanding deeper investigation. Fragmentation analysis is plagued by limited available observational and orbital data, that is sometimes collected several orbital periods, or even months, after an event. Furthermore, data carries uncertainties which increase in positional state when propagated backward to the time of the fragmentation event. An examination of three Atlas V Centaur upper stage fragmentation events in 2018 and 2019 is performed in this work. Uncertainty is represented using Unscented Transform sigma points as deterministic samples, and fragment distributions relative to the parent spacecraft are evaluated to gain insight into the fragment dynamics at the estimated break-up time. A comparison is drawn between the conclusions of this research and earlier work by the same authors that diagnosed the event causes based on only the means of the distributions.