Association between cardiometabolic index and the incidence of stroke: a prospective nationwide cohort study in China

Cardiometabolic index (CMI), based on triglycerides (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), has been recognized as a novel and practical marker for the assessment of cardiometabolic risk. However, the relationship between CMI and the incidence of stroke remains to be elucidated. This investigation aimed to explore the association between CMI and stroke incidence.

The investigation included 6,633 individuals aged over 45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Logistic regressions and restricted cubic spline regression were uitilized to determine the relationship between CMI and the incidence of stroke. Weighted quantile sum regression was used to offer a comprehensive explanation of the CMI by calculating the weights of triglyceride-glucose (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), weight, and height.

During the 9-year follow-up, 827 (12%) incident stroke participants were identified. With CMI as a continuous variable, the OR (95% CI) for the risk of incident stroke was 1.09 (1.01–1.19) (p = 0.047) after adjusting for potential confounders, indicating a significant link between increased CMI and an elevated incidence of stroke. Additionally, when CMI was categorized into quartiles, compared to the first quartile, the incident stroke was significantly higher in the fourth quartile (OR 1.57, 95%CI 1.22–2.04, p <0.001). The association between CMI and stroke incidence was nonlinear (p_overall=0.002, p_non−linear = 0.006). TG emerged as the primary contributor when the weights were assigned to the constituent elements of the CMI (weight = 0.645).

The CMI was independently associated with stroke incidence in middle-aged and elderly Chinese populations. Long-term CMI monitoring is of great importance for early identification and prevention of stroke, with significant implications for clinical practice.