A Probabilistic Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment of Geosynthetic vs. Conventional Retaining Walls in India
摘要
Conventional reinforced concrete (RCC) retaining walls are widely used in highway infrastructure but are associated with high embodied emissions due to cement- and steel-intensive construction. Geosynthetic-reinforced alternatives offer the potential for substantially reduced environmental burdens; however, region-specific and uncertainty-explicit assessments for developing economy contexts are limited. This study presents a cradle-to-gate comparative life cycle assessment of an approximately 11 m high RCC cantilever wall and a polymeric strip–reinforced mechanically stabilized earth wall, designed for Indian highway conditions. The analysis integrates primary project-level design and quantity data with regionally adapted background inventories based on Ecoinvent v3.8 adjusted for Indian electricity mix, transport distances, and material production characteristics. Environmental impacts are evaluated using TRACI 2.1 midpoint indicators and ReCiPe 2016 endpoint damage categories, with climate change characterized using IPCC 2021 factors. Uncertainty and robustness are examined through a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation combined with variance-based sensitivity interpretation. Results indicate that the geosynthetic system achieves approximately 84% lower global warming potential than the RCC alternative (3,127 ± 470 vs. 19,883 ± 2,982 kg CO₂-eq per functional unit), with consistent reductions across human health, ecosystem quality, and resource scarcity indicators. Uncertainty analysis reveals narrower confidence intervals and more distributed variance contributions for the geosynthetic system, while the RCC alternative remains dominated by concrete-related emissions. Material optimization scenarios for RCC do not eliminate the comparative advantage. A five-phase uncertainty management framework is proposed to support incorporation of probabilistic LCA into infrastructure design and procurement. The study contributes a regionally contextualized and uncertainty-explicit assessment framework, demonstrating that geosynthetic reinforcement can provide both lower embodied impacts and more robust environmental performance under realistic input variability.