In order to achieve real-time prediction of ground surface settlement caused by shield tunneling in double-line tunnel, a three-dimensional dynamic settlement prediction model for double-line tunnel excavation was established based on stochastic medium theory. A prediction formula for real-time ground settlement during the excavation of a double-line tunnel was derived by introducing the longitudinal excavation coefficient \(\gamma\) , the maximum settlement correction coefficient \(\alpha\) , and the settlement slot width correction coefficient \(\beta\) . A three-dimensional finite element model was established based on the Tianjin Metro Line 7 project. The influence of parameters such as ground loss rate, tunnel face pressure, buried depth, and double-line tunnel spacing on formation deformation was studied through numerical methods. The results show that the applicability of the prediction formula has been verified by comparing it with numerical methods and on-site surface subsidence monitoring data. The ground loss rate and tunnel face pressure have a significant impact on the maximum ground surface settlement, but rather weak impact on the range of surface settlement. The burial depth has a significant impact on the amount and range of surface settlement. With the increase in the spacing between double-line tunnels, the ground settlement curve shape gradually changed from “V” type, to “U” type, and then to “W” type. The critical double-line tunnel spacing is 1.1 times the tunnel diameter and 1.4 times the tunnel diameter, respectively. When the ground settlement curve shape is in a “W” type, the maximum ground surface settlement of second tunnel is greater than first tunnel.
