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<p>Project time control and monitoring are two of the main procedures in project management and have considerable developmental potential. Earned Duration Management (EDM) is an efficient and new approach to control and predict the temporal performance of a project that only uses time data, unlike other methods. Project time control techniques are always used in the environment of real projects with intrinsic uncertainty and numerous risks; therefore, consideration of uncertainties and risks in the computations of project time control and prediction method results in a more precise analysis of the current and future temporal performance of the project. In this research, an integrated approach is used to control and predict time in the actual environment of projects by developing the EDM method. Thus, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty resulting from the project experts' opinions about determining time and risk parameters. Also, the relationships between performance indices are developed to enhance the accuracy and application of this kind of novel fuzzy set. Moreover, two different approaches are presented in this research to evaluate project time-based risk performance by introducing two indexes due to existing risks affecting the rime in real projects' environments. To calculate the risk performance index of the first approach, the concept of risk performance metrics with a triangular intuitionistic fuzzy group decision-making to determine the weight of metrics and their constituent factors. Also, the concepts of occurrence possibility and effect intensity of risks are employed to calculate the risk performance index of the second performance. When developed risk and duration performance indexes are used, a new equation is introduced for the prediction of project time completion, which provides high flexibility for being used in different project statuses. A structured framework is then introduced to analyze and interpret the results obtained from the computation of indicators and predictions. Finally, a real case study is proposed to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed model. The results of the case study evaluation based on the proposed approach indicate that the studied project is behind schedule and time predictions also reveal that the project is finished after the baseline planned time with a delay.</p>

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Project Time Control by Considering Earned Risk and Duration Under Uncertainty Conditions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月5日

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  • Nazanin Zahra Dashtaki,
  • Fatemeh Tohidi,
  • Yeganeh Bahmani Mahbod,
  • Mohammad Amin Maftoon

摘要

Project time control and monitoring are two of the main procedures in project management and have considerable developmental potential. Earned Duration Management (EDM) is an efficient and new approach to control and predict the temporal performance of a project that only uses time data, unlike other methods. Project time control techniques are always used in the environment of real projects with intrinsic uncertainty and numerous risks; therefore, consideration of uncertainties and risks in the computations of project time control and prediction method results in a more precise analysis of the current and future temporal performance of the project. In this research, an integrated approach is used to control and predict time in the actual environment of projects by developing the EDM method. Thus, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are used to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty resulting from the project experts' opinions about determining time and risk parameters. Also, the relationships between performance indices are developed to enhance the accuracy and application of this kind of novel fuzzy set. Moreover, two different approaches are presented in this research to evaluate project time-based risk performance by introducing two indexes due to existing risks affecting the rime in real projects' environments. To calculate the risk performance index of the first approach, the concept of risk performance metrics with a triangular intuitionistic fuzzy group decision-making to determine the weight of metrics and their constituent factors. Also, the concepts of occurrence possibility and effect intensity of risks are employed to calculate the risk performance index of the second performance. When developed risk and duration performance indexes are used, a new equation is introduced for the prediction of project time completion, which provides high flexibility for being used in different project statuses. A structured framework is then introduced to analyze and interpret the results obtained from the computation of indicators and predictions. Finally, a real case study is proposed to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed model. The results of the case study evaluation based on the proposed approach indicate that the studied project is behind schedule and time predictions also reveal that the project is finished after the baseline planned time with a delay.