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<p>This study presents a multi-stressor physics of failure framework for computing site specific reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of pole luminaire systems subjected to the coupled effects of wind induced vortex shedding, thermal cycling, and atmospheric corrosion. A time dependent reliability index is formulated by integrating fatigue damage modelling through Miner’s cumulative damage rule and S–N fatigue characterisation with first order reliability methods (FORM). The effective stress is obtained by superposing dynamic wind induced alternating stress, quasi-static thermal mean stress, and corrosion-amplified stress arising from progressive section loss, combined through the Goodman fatigue criterion. The framework incorporates location specific environmental data wind climatology, diurnal temperature ranges, relative humidity, and sulphate/chloride deposition to generate spatially resolved RUL curves and failure probability trajectories. A comparative reliability analysis across three standard pole geometries square straight steel (SSS), round straight steel (RSS), and round tapered steel (RTS) demonstrates that SSS poles exhibit the highest fatigue vulnerability, with a representative 5-year failure probability of 10.74%, compared to substantially lower values for round variants. The inclusion of thermal stresses elevates the five year failure probability from approximately 5% to 23% relative to wind only loading, while corrosion induced section loss further accelerates reliability degradation, particularly in coastal and high-deposition environments. A spatial probability of failure map developed for the state of Georgia (USA) reveals that coastal corridors register significantly elevated failure probabilities driven by corrosion-assisted fatigue, even in the absence of wind-speed lock-in conditions. The principal novelty of this work lies in three contributions not addressed in prior studies: (i) a unified comparative assessment of geometry-dependent fatigue vulnerability within a single probabilistic framework, (ii) a spatially resolved reliability map linking site-specific environmental variability to failure risk, and (iii) evidence that corrosion can dominate failure probability independently of aerodynamic loading severity. The methodology provides a transferable, site adaptable pathway for risk informed pole selection, inspection prioritisation, and lifecycle management across diverse deployment regions.</p>

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Reliability Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Pole Luminaire Systems Using a Multi Stressor Physics of Failure Framework

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月18日

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  • Ashish Patil,
  • Makarand Kulkarni

摘要

This study presents a multi-stressor physics of failure framework for computing site specific reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of pole luminaire systems subjected to the coupled effects of wind induced vortex shedding, thermal cycling, and atmospheric corrosion. A time dependent reliability index is formulated by integrating fatigue damage modelling through Miner’s cumulative damage rule and S–N fatigue characterisation with first order reliability methods (FORM). The effective stress is obtained by superposing dynamic wind induced alternating stress, quasi-static thermal mean stress, and corrosion-amplified stress arising from progressive section loss, combined through the Goodman fatigue criterion. The framework incorporates location specific environmental data wind climatology, diurnal temperature ranges, relative humidity, and sulphate/chloride deposition to generate spatially resolved RUL curves and failure probability trajectories. A comparative reliability analysis across three standard pole geometries square straight steel (SSS), round straight steel (RSS), and round tapered steel (RTS) demonstrates that SSS poles exhibit the highest fatigue vulnerability, with a representative 5-year failure probability of 10.74%, compared to substantially lower values for round variants. The inclusion of thermal stresses elevates the five year failure probability from approximately 5% to 23% relative to wind only loading, while corrosion induced section loss further accelerates reliability degradation, particularly in coastal and high-deposition environments. A spatial probability of failure map developed for the state of Georgia (USA) reveals that coastal corridors register significantly elevated failure probabilities driven by corrosion-assisted fatigue, even in the absence of wind-speed lock-in conditions. The principal novelty of this work lies in three contributions not addressed in prior studies: (i) a unified comparative assessment of geometry-dependent fatigue vulnerability within a single probabilistic framework, (ii) a spatially resolved reliability map linking site-specific environmental variability to failure risk, and (iii) evidence that corrosion can dominate failure probability independently of aerodynamic loading severity. The methodology provides a transferable, site adaptable pathway for risk informed pole selection, inspection prioritisation, and lifecycle management across diverse deployment regions.