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<p>The perceivable consequences of climate change impacts on hydrometeorological systems, including the increased frequency of extreme urban floods, necessitate the use of short-duration precipitation. Those data are highly beneficial for investigating future climate scenarios, which are more effective in flood risk assessment and management in metropolitan areas. In this study, the precipitation outputs from three CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled both spatially to a 0.25° × 0.25° grid and temporally to an hourly scale. The derived hourly data are compared with the hourly precipitation data of Version 5 of European Reanalysis (ERA5) data. Using these data and two selected efficiency criteria, the best-performing GCM has been identified for the study region. For the selected GCM model, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 outputs, are assessed from 2015 to 2021. It is found that the future climate scenario under SSP1-2.6 provides outputs closest to the precipitation data from ERA5 over the study region. It is worth mentioning that our results may be helpful for policymaking in areas such as urban development and agricultural planning in the region.</p>

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Regional Climate Review: CMIP6 GCM Precipitation Patterns in Northeast India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • Avijit Paul,
  • Soumen Maji

摘要

The perceivable consequences of climate change impacts on hydrometeorological systems, including the increased frequency of extreme urban floods, necessitate the use of short-duration precipitation. Those data are highly beneficial for investigating future climate scenarios, which are more effective in flood risk assessment and management in metropolitan areas. In this study, the precipitation outputs from three CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled both spatially to a 0.25° × 0.25° grid and temporally to an hourly scale. The derived hourly data are compared with the hourly precipitation data of Version 5 of European Reanalysis (ERA5) data. Using these data and two selected efficiency criteria, the best-performing GCM has been identified for the study region. For the selected GCM model, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 outputs, are assessed from 2015 to 2021. It is found that the future climate scenario under SSP1-2.6 provides outputs closest to the precipitation data from ERA5 over the study region. It is worth mentioning that our results may be helpful for policymaking in areas such as urban development and agricultural planning in the region.