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<p>The livelihoods of approximately 80% of Ethiopia’s population depend on agricultural activities. However, the sector is being influenced by climate change. Given the site-specific nature of climate change impacts, assessing its effects on irrigation water requirements is crucial. This study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on irrigation water requirements using two global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and CanESM2, in conjunction with the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). CanESM2 with the RCP 8.5 scenario was selected due to its superior performance in simulating temperature changes than HadCM3. The simulated mean daily and monthly rainfall, along with maximum and minimum temperatures, were tested using the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) and root mean square error (RMSE) to ensure model reliability. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was then calculated using the Penman–Monteith method, known for its applicability across diverse climatic conditions. These downscaled climate projections and ETo estimates were used as input into the CropWat 8.0 model to estimate crop and irrigation water requirements (CWR/IWR). Results showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase significantly, ranging from around 0.9&#xa0;°C–2.9&#xa0;°C and 0.6&#xa0;°C–2.5&#xa0;°C, respectively. Although rainfall projections showed variabilities throughout different seasons and periods, both GCMs indicate a substantial rise in CWR/IWR. Crop water requirements (CWR) of major crops such as maize, barley, and sorghum are projected to increase by 2030, 2050, and 2080, indicating a critical trend of increasing agricultural water demand. Therefore, the findings emphasize the pressing need for developing adaptive water management strategies to address the likely effects of climate change on irrigation water demand in the study area and across the country.</p>

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Irrigation Water Requirements in Tana Basin, Ethiopia: A Long-Term Projection of Climate Change Impact

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月24日

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  • Hailu Birara,
  • Abel Girma,
  • Amanuel Abate,
  • Achenafi Teklay

摘要

The livelihoods of approximately 80% of Ethiopia’s population depend on agricultural activities. However, the sector is being influenced by climate change. Given the site-specific nature of climate change impacts, assessing its effects on irrigation water requirements is crucial. This study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on irrigation water requirements using two global climate models (GCMs), namely HadCM3 and CanESM2, in conjunction with the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). CanESM2 with the RCP 8.5 scenario was selected due to its superior performance in simulating temperature changes than HadCM3. The simulated mean daily and monthly rainfall, along with maximum and minimum temperatures, were tested using the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) to ensure model reliability. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was then calculated using the Penman–Monteith method, known for its applicability across diverse climatic conditions. These downscaled climate projections and ETo estimates were used as input into the CropWat 8.0 model to estimate crop and irrigation water requirements (CWR/IWR). Results showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase significantly, ranging from around 0.9 °C–2.9 °C and 0.6 °C–2.5 °C, respectively. Although rainfall projections showed variabilities throughout different seasons and periods, both GCMs indicate a substantial rise in CWR/IWR. Crop water requirements (CWR) of major crops such as maize, barley, and sorghum are projected to increase by 2030, 2050, and 2080, indicating a critical trend of increasing agricultural water demand. Therefore, the findings emphasize the pressing need for developing adaptive water management strategies to address the likely effects of climate change on irrigation water demand in the study area and across the country.