<p>Export diversification is critical for enhancing trade resilience and long-term competitiveness. This study examines the patterns and determinants of India’s dairy export diversification across Asian markets during 2000–2023. Using product-level trade data for eight major dairy categories (HS 0401–0406, 1702, 3501), export diversification was measured through the Herfindahl Index, while key drivers were analysed using beta regression and the Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighted (AIPW) estimator. The results revealed a gradual but consistent diversification of India’s dairy exports, particularly in East Asia and the Gulf countries, whereas exports to Central and South Asia remained highly concentrated. Econometric evidence suggested that institutional and regional factors played a more decisive role than market size and price effects. In particular, Regional Trade Agreements significantly reduced export concentration, with AIPW estimates indicating a 21.1 per cent improvement in diversification for partner countries. These findings emphasize the need to strategically leverage trade agreements and strengthen domestic supply chains to enhance India’s dairy export competitiveness in Asian markets.</p>

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Tracing India’s Dairy Export Diversification in Asia: Key Drivers and Trends

  • Mrinmoy Das,
  • Gunjan Bhandari,
  • Rishita Sen,
  • Biswajit Sen

摘要

Export diversification is critical for enhancing trade resilience and long-term competitiveness. This study examines the patterns and determinants of India’s dairy export diversification across Asian markets during 2000–2023. Using product-level trade data for eight major dairy categories (HS 0401–0406, 1702, 3501), export diversification was measured through the Herfindahl Index, while key drivers were analysed using beta regression and the Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighted (AIPW) estimator. The results revealed a gradual but consistent diversification of India’s dairy exports, particularly in East Asia and the Gulf countries, whereas exports to Central and South Asia remained highly concentrated. Econometric evidence suggested that institutional and regional factors played a more decisive role than market size and price effects. In particular, Regional Trade Agreements significantly reduced export concentration, with AIPW estimates indicating a 21.1 per cent improvement in diversification for partner countries. These findings emphasize the need to strategically leverage trade agreements and strengthen domestic supply chains to enhance India’s dairy export competitiveness in Asian markets.