<p>This study investigates the nonlinear impact of green agricultural technology innovation (GATI) on China’s new-type urbanization (NTU), emphasizing its multidimensional mechanisms and the moderating role of agricultural human capital. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2008–2021), we employ dynamic econometric models, including fixed-effects regression and mediation analysis, to empirically test the U-shaped relationship between GATI and NTU. Key findings reveal: (1) A robust U-shaped curve characterizes the GATI-NTU nexus, where initial inhibitory effects transition to significant promotion as GATI surpasses a threshold (inflection point: 1.309 AGTFP units). (2) GATI indirectly enhances NTU by elevating agricultural economic output (+ 0.269 via Lnael), residents’ living standards (− 0.357 via Engel coefficient), social security (+ 0.326 via mechanization), and mitigating air pollution (− 0.0428 via SO₂ reduction). (3) Agricultural human capital critically moderates this relationship, shifting the U-curve inflection point leftward (to 0.85 AGTFP units), accelerating positive impacts under higher human capital accumulation. Spatial heterogeneity highlights stronger GATI-driven urbanization effects in eastern China (<i>β</i> = 0.24, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05), while temporal analysis identifies a 3–4-year “golden window” for maximizing returns on green technology investments. (4) Research reveals green technology plays a pivotal role in reshaping social structures. The study advances theoretical frameworks by integrating technology–economy–society–environment pathways and challenges deterministic views of technological adoption, offering policymakers actionable insights for aligning GATI diffusion with urbanization stages and human capital development. These findings underscore the necessity of multidimensional, region-specific strategies to synchronize agricultural modernization with sustainable urbanization in developing economies.</p>