<p>A study was conducted to identify trends in historical and projected climatic time series of Jabalpur district, and assess their impact on growth and yield of soybean in major soybean growing districts in central India, using CROPGRO-Soybean model. A field experiment was conducted at Jabalpur for the year 2016 and 2017 to generate genetic coefficients of soybean cultivar, JS 20–34, and evaluated among different sowing dates. Analysis of long-term (1985–2014&#xa0;years) weather data revealed positive trend in rainfall, and negative trend in both the maximum and minimum temperatures. A projected future (2021–2050&#xa0;years) rainfall exhibited negative trend, and both the temperatures showed positive trend. Both the temperatures were negatively associated with seed yield during soybean growing season. The districts Dewas, Betul, and Ujjain have favourable weather conditions for growing soybean than Jabalpur and Shivpuri districts. The model predicted growth and yield with good agreement between observed and simulated days for anthesis (<i>D</i> = 0.47), maturity (<i>D</i> = 0.69), and seed yield (<i>D</i> = 0.88). An increase in maximum temperature by 1&#xa0;°C reduces days to anthesis by 3&#xa0;days. However, maturity of crop attained with delay in sowing. Similarly, yield increased with slight increase in both the temperatures. A small increase in CO₂ concentration increased growth and yield in soybean. A projected climate (mainly RCP 8.5) exhibited delay in anthesis and maturity stages by 1–3&#xa0;days in soybean compared to baseline in majority of the districts. Declining trend in yield under RCP8.5 was predicted in 2025 and 2050&#xa0;years. Farmers have to shift early sowing window or short-duration varieties to counter climatic change.</p>