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<p>In this study, meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought conditions in the Lake Burdur sub-basin were comprehensively assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple temporal scales (SPEI-1, SPEI-6, SPEI-12, and SPEI-24). Drought trends were identified through the Mann–Kendall trend test, and key drought characteristics, including frequency, duration, severity, and intensity, were statistically evaluated. The results reveal a basin-wide intensification of drought risk, with statistically significant negative trends becoming increasingly pronounced at longer time scales. While short-term droughts were found to occur more frequently and with higher intensity, long-term droughts were characterized by lower frequency but extended duration and greater cumulative severity. Spatial analyses further demonstrated that drought patterns are heterogeneously distributed across the basin, with the northeastern and southwestern sectors exhibiting heightened vulnerability. Overall, the results provide a scientifically robust basis for basin-scale drought monitoring and contribute to the development of sustainable and adaptive water resource management strategies under increasing climatic stress.</p>

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Spatiotemporal evolution and characterization of multi-scale droughts in the endorheic lake Burdur sub-basin, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

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  • Y. Aşık,
  • L. G. Kaya

摘要

In this study, meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought conditions in the Lake Burdur sub-basin were comprehensively assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple temporal scales (SPEI-1, SPEI-6, SPEI-12, and SPEI-24). Drought trends were identified through the Mann–Kendall trend test, and key drought characteristics, including frequency, duration, severity, and intensity, were statistically evaluated. The results reveal a basin-wide intensification of drought risk, with statistically significant negative trends becoming increasingly pronounced at longer time scales. While short-term droughts were found to occur more frequently and with higher intensity, long-term droughts were characterized by lower frequency but extended duration and greater cumulative severity. Spatial analyses further demonstrated that drought patterns are heterogeneously distributed across the basin, with the northeastern and southwestern sectors exhibiting heightened vulnerability. Overall, the results provide a scientifically robust basis for basin-scale drought monitoring and contribute to the development of sustainable and adaptive water resource management strategies under increasing climatic stress.