Analyzing the performance of emissions trading schemes for aviation carbon mitigation under uncertainty
摘要
Emission trading schemes are a promising approach for combating carbon emissions within the aviation industry. However, the efficiency of aviation carbon trading is influenced by various factors, and traditional approaches lack flexibility. In this study, an Inexact-stochastic Dynamic Carbon Emission Trading (ISD-CET) model has been developed to support aviation carbon management. It has the capability to effectively manage uncertainties represented by interval values, fuzzy decisions, and probabilistic distributions, as well as the complexities of carbon allocation dynamics. The model is applied to the route from Tianjin to Xi’an in China, and various scenarios regarding tradable emission levels, passenger load factors, and satisfaction levels are introduced. The solutions obtained can help generate carbon allocation, aircraft selection, and trading schemes under different scenarios. In addition, violation analyses are conducted to assess the impact of constraint violations on the overall system benefit. The findings demonstrate that ISD-CET can offer a flexible and adaptable solution for aviation carbon trading. The carbon quota allocation plays a significant role in carbon trading management and aviation carbon reductions. These results are significant as they provide valuable guidance to policymakers and industry practitioners alike, enabling them to make informed and accurate decisions regarding aircraft selections and trading strategies under uncertain environment.