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<p>Extreme precipitation-high temperature events increase disaster risks, making accurate assessment of their spatiotemporal evolution crucial for enhancing regional adaptation. This study utilized three General Circulation Models (GCMs) to derive 13 Extreme Precipitation/Temperature Indices under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and reveal the heterogeneous spatial–temporal evolution of the extreme indices at the national-regional scale from 1981 to 2100 by spatial–temporal statistical methods, Mann–Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The downscaled outputs of the extreme climate indices and the reanalysis data for the historical period (1981–2010) agree well, with the average Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.6. At the national scale, 12 indicators have an increasing trend in most regions, with a range of 65–100% of the total national area, and the increasing trend of different scenarios is shown as SSP5-8.5 &gt; SSP3-7.0 &gt; SSP2-4.5 &gt; SSP1-2.6; 3 indicators have a decreasing trend in the Southwest China (R10MM, PRCPTOT) and North China (TXX), accounting for about 0.5–7.5% of the national territory. At the regional scale, extremely high temperatures increased in Northeast China and Southwest China, extreme precipitation increased in the southeast coastal region, and both extreme precipitation and high temperatures increased significantly in southeast North China, northeast Southwest China, and Northwest China; the indices of extreme precipitation and extreme high temperatures exhibited oscillation of periods of 3–7&#xa0;years and 2–6&#xa0;years respectively (eastern region &gt; central region &gt; western region). This study provides a scientific reference for developing climate adaptation policies.</p>

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Confronting the dual climate challenge: a spatiotemporal assessment of extreme precipitation-high temperature events in China, 1981–2100

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月12日

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  • Z. Su,
  • Y. Liang,
  • L. Liu

摘要

Extreme precipitation-high temperature events increase disaster risks, making accurate assessment of their spatiotemporal evolution crucial for enhancing regional adaptation. This study utilized three General Circulation Models (GCMs) to derive 13 Extreme Precipitation/Temperature Indices under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and reveal the heterogeneous spatial–temporal evolution of the extreme indices at the national-regional scale from 1981 to 2100 by spatial–temporal statistical methods, Mann–Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The downscaled outputs of the extreme climate indices and the reanalysis data for the historical period (1981–2010) agree well, with the average Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.6. At the national scale, 12 indicators have an increasing trend in most regions, with a range of 65–100% of the total national area, and the increasing trend of different scenarios is shown as SSP5-8.5 > SSP3-7.0 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6; 3 indicators have a decreasing trend in the Southwest China (R10MM, PRCPTOT) and North China (TXX), accounting for about 0.5–7.5% of the national territory. At the regional scale, extremely high temperatures increased in Northeast China and Southwest China, extreme precipitation increased in the southeast coastal region, and both extreme precipitation and high temperatures increased significantly in southeast North China, northeast Southwest China, and Northwest China; the indices of extreme precipitation and extreme high temperatures exhibited oscillation of periods of 3–7 years and 2–6 years respectively (eastern region > central region > western region). This study provides a scientific reference for developing climate adaptation policies.