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<p>Time series analysis of Total Column Ozone and its interaction with climatic parameters served as an efficient way to understand the recent global climatic changes. In this paper, we estimated an adequate model to forecast the trajectory of TCO for 7&#xa0;years ahead, utilizing a dataset spanning 25&#xa0;years from 1990 to 2014 by using conventional ARIMA model over Himalayan region of India (Uttarakhand). The model exhibited high degree of accuracy as evidenced by a significant Root Mean Square Error of 3.63, with a similar oscillating pattern in both observed and predicted Ozone value. The spatial distribution of Total Column Ozone yielded a maximum value in pre-monsoon, followed by a gradual decline, reaching minimum during post-monsoon season and demonstrated variability as a function of latitude. In addition, an association between ozone concentration and Climatic parameters, i.e. Average Temperature, Relative Humidity, Rainfall and Wind speed was established over 15&#xa0;years (2009–2023). Moreover, results from the Spearman Rank test demonstrated a moderated significant (5%) correlation with climatic parameters; elucidating the influence of climatic parameters on stratosphere-Troposphere exchange at high altitude region (Uttarakhand). The Least Squares Method indicated an ascending trend for all parameters except Average temperature, indicating the recovery of ozone and a reduced impact of global warming at the site. The outcomes of this study were helpful in further investigation of various climatic phenomena and were expected to contribute to climate policy-making for the Himalayan regions of India as well as globally.</p>

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Prediction through ARIMA and correlation analysis of Total Column Ozone over Himalayan region of India; Uttarakhand

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月8日

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  • N. Deyal,
  • N. S. Bisht

摘要

Time series analysis of Total Column Ozone and its interaction with climatic parameters served as an efficient way to understand the recent global climatic changes. In this paper, we estimated an adequate model to forecast the trajectory of TCO for 7 years ahead, utilizing a dataset spanning 25 years from 1990 to 2014 by using conventional ARIMA model over Himalayan region of India (Uttarakhand). The model exhibited high degree of accuracy as evidenced by a significant Root Mean Square Error of 3.63, with a similar oscillating pattern in both observed and predicted Ozone value. The spatial distribution of Total Column Ozone yielded a maximum value in pre-monsoon, followed by a gradual decline, reaching minimum during post-monsoon season and demonstrated variability as a function of latitude. In addition, an association between ozone concentration and Climatic parameters, i.e. Average Temperature, Relative Humidity, Rainfall and Wind speed was established over 15 years (2009–2023). Moreover, results from the Spearman Rank test demonstrated a moderated significant (5%) correlation with climatic parameters; elucidating the influence of climatic parameters on stratosphere-Troposphere exchange at high altitude region (Uttarakhand). The Least Squares Method indicated an ascending trend for all parameters except Average temperature, indicating the recovery of ozone and a reduced impact of global warming at the site. The outcomes of this study were helpful in further investigation of various climatic phenomena and were expected to contribute to climate policy-making for the Himalayan regions of India as well as globally.