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<p>Since 2005, China has focused on reducing carbon emissions, yet China continue to rise annually. In 2020, China’s emissions reached 10,296.84 MtCO2e, the highest in the world, and China’s logistics industry ranked fifth in carbon emissions among all industries. Effective management of this sector is crucial for both national and global emission control. This study examines the relationship between China’s logistics industry and other sectors, predicting its carbon emission potential using network analysis, Bayesian networks, and Gray Wolf Optimization Support Vector Regression by input–output tables, sub-industry carbon emission data, and industry development data from 2007 to 2020. It found that the transportation equipment manufacturing industry has the strongest link to the logistics industry, with a relationship coefficient of 6.9, which is 0.2 higher than the second place (the logistics industry) and 5.1 higher than the third place (Other Industries). The study predicts the logistics industry’s carbon emissions will peak between 2035 and 2045 under under low and medium economic development scenarios respectively, taking longer time to reach the peak under the high economic development scenario.</p>

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Research on carbon peak measurement and potential of China’s logistics industry

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月21日

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  • S. Han,
  • Z. Zhou,
  • J. Gui

摘要

Since 2005, China has focused on reducing carbon emissions, yet China continue to rise annually. In 2020, China’s emissions reached 10,296.84 MtCO2e, the highest in the world, and China’s logistics industry ranked fifth in carbon emissions among all industries. Effective management of this sector is crucial for both national and global emission control. This study examines the relationship between China’s logistics industry and other sectors, predicting its carbon emission potential using network analysis, Bayesian networks, and Gray Wolf Optimization Support Vector Regression by input–output tables, sub-industry carbon emission data, and industry development data from 2007 to 2020. It found that the transportation equipment manufacturing industry has the strongest link to the logistics industry, with a relationship coefficient of 6.9, which is 0.2 higher than the second place (the logistics industry) and 5.1 higher than the third place (Other Industries). The study predicts the logistics industry’s carbon emissions will peak between 2035 and 2045 under under low and medium economic development scenarios respectively, taking longer time to reach the peak under the high economic development scenario.