Scenario simulation in decision-making optimization: lessons from social coppice forests

In this study, three options for coppice management in Iran were developed. These management options include Traditional Coppicing (TC), modification of TC, and extreme conservation to convert them into high forest. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for modeling to select the optimal solution for managing these forests. Six different scenarios were simulated in which the importance of the criteria in decision-making process changed. The results show that each of the three management options has its own importance, which depends on the conditions of the region and the different importance of the decision criteria. Therefore, the selection of the management scenario for future forest planning depends on prioritizing the criteria from the perspective of the managers and stakeholders and is dependent on social, economic and ecological conditions in each management unit. The results of this study show that it is not possible to rely solely on the results of the AHP method for forest management decisions, as AHP model does not include constraints. In this context, reverse engineering can be very helpful in the final conclusion of the decision. The results of this study can make a valuable contribution to the global literature and support decision-making, especially in scenarios where stakeholder participation may be limited and modeling stakeholder behavior is essential to the decision-making process.