<p>This paper analyses fertility transition in India during 1985–2020 based on the data from the official sample registration system. The analysis reveals that fertility transition in the country is contingent upon the way age-specific fertility rates are aggregated into a single composite indicator of fertility. When the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates is used as a composite indicator of fertility, fertility in India has decreased almost linearly. However, when the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates is used as the composite indicator of fertility, fertility transition in India appears to have stalled during the period 2011–2013. The analysis also reveals that the change in marital fertility accounted for only about 35 per cent of the change in the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates but more than half of the change in the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates. The paper suggests that fertility transition should not be analysed in terms of the trend in the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates or, equivalently, total fertility rate but should be analysed in terms of the trend in the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates.</p>

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Fertility Transition in India, 1985–2020: Selection of the Aggregation Function Matters

  • Aalok Ranjan Chaurasia,
  • Brijesh P. Singh

摘要

This paper analyses fertility transition in India during 1985–2020 based on the data from the official sample registration system. The analysis reveals that fertility transition in the country is contingent upon the way age-specific fertility rates are aggregated into a single composite indicator of fertility. When the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates is used as a composite indicator of fertility, fertility in India has decreased almost linearly. However, when the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates is used as the composite indicator of fertility, fertility transition in India appears to have stalled during the period 2011–2013. The analysis also reveals that the change in marital fertility accounted for only about 35 per cent of the change in the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates but more than half of the change in the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates. The paper suggests that fertility transition should not be analysed in terms of the trend in the simple arithmetic mean of age-specific fertility rates or, equivalently, total fertility rate but should be analysed in terms of the trend in the geometric mean of age-specific fertility rates.