<p>Mineral discoveries are a critical outcome of exploration activities, shaping the future availability of non-renewable resources. While prior research emphasizes the importance of geological potential and institutional quality in exploration decisions, empirical analyses of the determinants of exploration success remain limited. This study examines the drivers of mineral discoveries using data on gold and copper deposits alongside national-level exploration expenditures. Results show that exploration budgets are the primary determinant of both the frequency and quality of discoveries, particularly at early stages of exploration. Institutional quality does not exert a significant direct effect once financial effort is accounted for, suggesting that governance primarily operates through capital allocation mechanisms. However, interaction results indicate that institutional environments condition the effectiveness of exploration spending, with higher institutional quality associated with lower marginal returns to exploration expenditures, especially for gold. In addition, price signals influence discoveries only over long-time horizons (16 years for copper and 18 years for gold), reflecting the extended and cumulative nature of exploration processes. Estimated marginal discovery costs exceed prevailing copper market prices and approach parity with gold, suggesting systematic over-optimism or risk-seeking behavior among firms. These findings highlight structural inefficiencies in exploration systems and underscore the need for policy frameworks that go beyond price-based incentives to ensure long-term mineral supply.</p>