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<p>Centralized economic planning has guided Türkiye’s industrial strategy for six decades. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Türkiye’s twelve National Development Plans (1963–2028) in the mining sector by quantifying the “policy gap” between strategic intent and realized economic performance. A tripartite quantitative framework was employed: First, a TF-IDF Natural Language Processing algorithm mapped the semantic evolution of state policy across three eras; second, Shift-Share Analysis decomposed export growth to isolate genuine sectoral competitiveness; and finally, an ARIMA (1,1,0) model forecasted baseline export trajectories to 2030 using a 30-year constant-price empirical dataset (1996–2025). The analysis reveals significant structural breaks. While the semantic transition toward market liberalization (Plans 5–9) resulted in a “privatization lag” with a negative competitive shift of -$482.1&#xa0;million (Current USD), the modern era (Plans 10–11) capitalized on global market integration, achieving a positive structural shift of +$2.27&#xa0;billion (Current USD). However, the inflation-adjusted ARIMA forecast predicts a “business-as-usual” export trajectory of only $3.42&#xa0;billion (Constant 2017 USD) by 2030, exposing a severe “Strategic Feasibility Gap” against the mathematically deflated ~$8.17&#xa0;billion real target of the 12th Plan. Crucially, this divergence empirically confirms that volume-driven export expansion—without robust microeconomic incentives for technological upgrading—is fundamentally insufficient for structural development. Bridging this gap requires a radical transition from raw extraction to domestic high-tech processing. By providing a longitudinal evaluation of mineral governance, this paper offers a transferable policy model for emerging economies navigating the middle-income trap.</p>

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Planned vision vs. economic reality: a quantitative policy gap analysis of Türkiye’s mining sector (1963–2030) in the context of industrial upgrading

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月27日

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  • Ertuğrul Karakaplan

摘要

Centralized economic planning has guided Türkiye’s industrial strategy for six decades. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Türkiye’s twelve National Development Plans (1963–2028) in the mining sector by quantifying the “policy gap” between strategic intent and realized economic performance. A tripartite quantitative framework was employed: First, a TF-IDF Natural Language Processing algorithm mapped the semantic evolution of state policy across three eras; second, Shift-Share Analysis decomposed export growth to isolate genuine sectoral competitiveness; and finally, an ARIMA (1,1,0) model forecasted baseline export trajectories to 2030 using a 30-year constant-price empirical dataset (1996–2025). The analysis reveals significant structural breaks. While the semantic transition toward market liberalization (Plans 5–9) resulted in a “privatization lag” with a negative competitive shift of -$482.1 million (Current USD), the modern era (Plans 10–11) capitalized on global market integration, achieving a positive structural shift of +$2.27 billion (Current USD). However, the inflation-adjusted ARIMA forecast predicts a “business-as-usual” export trajectory of only $3.42 billion (Constant 2017 USD) by 2030, exposing a severe “Strategic Feasibility Gap” against the mathematically deflated ~$8.17 billion real target of the 12th Plan. Crucially, this divergence empirically confirms that volume-driven export expansion—without robust microeconomic incentives for technological upgrading—is fundamentally insufficient for structural development. Bridging this gap requires a radical transition from raw extraction to domestic high-tech processing. By providing a longitudinal evaluation of mineral governance, this paper offers a transferable policy model for emerging economies navigating the middle-income trap.