Mapping the global rare earth chain dynamics: from geological endowment to separation capacity with focus on India
摘要
The past decade’s surge in electrification, digital technologies, and clean-energy systems has elevated rare-earth elements (REEs) to strategic importance, particularly for high-performance magnets, motors, sensors, and optical systems. However, existing REE literature remains fragmented across geological occurrence, reserves, mine production, and separation capacity, with inconsistencies in reporting units and scope. This study addresses this gap by developing a source-verified, unit-consistent synthesis of the global REE value chain from geological endowment to midstream separation. We quantify global reserves (Mt REO-equivalent), mine output (kt REO·yr⁻¹), and separation capacity (t REO·yr⁻¹ or NdPr-oxide·yr⁻¹) for 2024/25, and evaluate structural concentration using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). Results show a progressive tightening of supply from reserves to production and further to separation, identifying midstream processing as the principal bottleneck. We further assess announced separation “pipeline” projects across Australia, the United States, Europe, and Vietnam, highlighting their potential to expand NdPr availability and strengthen heavy rare earth (Dy, Tb) supply. A focused analysis of India integrates data on resource endowment, production, trade, and refining capacity, revealing a marked contrast between significant geological resources and limited current production and processing. By consolidating dispersed datasets into a unified analytical framework, this study provides a transparent, policy-relevant baseline for assessing REE supply security and identifies separation capacity expansion as the most effective lever for near-term diversification.