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<p>Indonesia, commanding 42% of global nickel reserves (USGS, 2025), enforced a 2014 raw ore export ban to capture electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain value through downstream processing. This study provides the first causal assessment of the policy's impact using intervention analysis with placebo falsification tests and scenario modeling over 2005–2025. Three key findings emerge. First, processed nickel export value surged 26-fold from USD 1.5 billion (2014) to USD 38.5 billion (2025), driven predominantly by exogenous EV demand growth (Trend β = 4.706,&#xa0;<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001) rather than discrete policy-induced level shifts (Policy β = − 0.178,&#xa0;<i>p</i> = 0.581), indicating trend-mediated success. Second, export composition transformed from 18% processed (pre-2014) to 99.9% (post-2020), propelling Indonesia to 46.9% global market share. Third, this upgrading success engenders the&#xa0;Dependency Paradox: 68% of nickel-sector FDI originates from China, 94% of processed exports flow to Chinese markets, and HPAL technology lock-in creates switching costs of USD 1–2 billion per facility. Scenario projections for 2030 range from USD 37.2 billion (adverse WTO DS592 ruling + ESG non-compliance) to USD 80.6 billion (ASEAN-China integration + ESG compliance), exposing policy fragility. This study advances resource nationalism and global value chain (GVC) upgrading theory by demonstrating that value capture and strategic vulnerability are co-produced outcomes, challenging linear upgrading assumptions. Policy prescriptions prioritize ESG compliance (60–70% by 2030), technological diversification via Japanese-European partnerships, and ASEAN-led WTO defense.</p>

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Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming in the geopolitics of the global EV battery industry: a political economy and scenario modeling analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月23日

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  • Syamsul Bachri Soamole,
  • Eliyanti Agus Mokodompit

摘要

Indonesia, commanding 42% of global nickel reserves (USGS, 2025), enforced a 2014 raw ore export ban to capture electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain value through downstream processing. This study provides the first causal assessment of the policy's impact using intervention analysis with placebo falsification tests and scenario modeling over 2005–2025. Three key findings emerge. First, processed nickel export value surged 26-fold from USD 1.5 billion (2014) to USD 38.5 billion (2025), driven predominantly by exogenous EV demand growth (Trend β = 4.706, p < 0.001) rather than discrete policy-induced level shifts (Policy β = − 0.178, p = 0.581), indicating trend-mediated success. Second, export composition transformed from 18% processed (pre-2014) to 99.9% (post-2020), propelling Indonesia to 46.9% global market share. Third, this upgrading success engenders the Dependency Paradox: 68% of nickel-sector FDI originates from China, 94% of processed exports flow to Chinese markets, and HPAL technology lock-in creates switching costs of USD 1–2 billion per facility. Scenario projections for 2030 range from USD 37.2 billion (adverse WTO DS592 ruling + ESG non-compliance) to USD 80.6 billion (ASEAN-China integration + ESG compliance), exposing policy fragility. This study advances resource nationalism and global value chain (GVC) upgrading theory by demonstrating that value capture and strategic vulnerability are co-produced outcomes, challenging linear upgrading assumptions. Policy prescriptions prioritize ESG compliance (60–70% by 2030), technological diversification via Japanese-European partnerships, and ASEAN-led WTO defense.