Scholarlink

<p>As a scarce mineral resource in China, the supply chain security of cobalt is crucial for the stable development of strategic emerging industries. However, previous studies tend to emphasize only the risk shock and its impact, but neglect the risk response and its dynamic process. Based on the formation mechanism of vulnerability and the risk “Shock-Response” analytical framework, this study reinterprets the connotation and formation of supply chain vulnerability. It constructs a measurement indicator system for assessing vulnerability risks in the cobalt supply chain. Using cobalt-related data from 2003 to 2022, the study employs multiple regression to identify the influence of key risk factors and further applies Monte Carlo simulation to quantitatively evaluate the probability of cobalt supply chain disruptions, thereby measuring the vulnerability of the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the supply chain. Research shows that: (1) Currently, China still faces issues of high risk shocks and weak response capabilities leading to supply chain vulnerability, In 2022, the vulnerability levels of the cobalt supply chain in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors were as high as 23.626%, 18.998%, and 16.216%, The security situation of cobalt resource supply is increasingly severe, and the vulnerability of the supply chain as a whole is on the increase. (2) The upstream sector of China’s cobalt supply chain demonstrates the highest vulnerability, while the downstream sector shows the lowest. Risks are predominantly concentrated in the raw ore mining stage, with external risk shocks being the primary cause of vulnerability in the cobalt supply chain. (3) Simulation predictions indicate that if the current vulnerability trend persists, the probability of supply disruptions in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2029 could reach as high as 86.634%, 66.124%, and 63.087%, respectively. Based on the research findings, this study proposes a two-pronged strategy focusing on both “shock” and “response” to ensure supply chain security: For the upstream sector, it is essential to proactively secure high-quality overseas resources and encourage investment diversification to mitigate external risk impacts. For the downstream sector, efforts must be accelerated to establish a management system for recycling secondary cobalt resources and vigorously promote technological innovation and substitution research. This will reduce dependence on primary cobalt and fundamentally enhance the risk resistance and recovery of the entire supply chain.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Incorporating shock-response into the assessment of China’s cobalt supply chain vulnerability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

查看全文
  • Han Sun,
  • Lu Chen,
  • Jinhua Cheng,
  • Xiaoxue Wang,
  • Ziyi Yuan,
  • Zhenghao Meng

摘要

As a scarce mineral resource in China, the supply chain security of cobalt is crucial for the stable development of strategic emerging industries. However, previous studies tend to emphasize only the risk shock and its impact, but neglect the risk response and its dynamic process. Based on the formation mechanism of vulnerability and the risk “Shock-Response” analytical framework, this study reinterprets the connotation and formation of supply chain vulnerability. It constructs a measurement indicator system for assessing vulnerability risks in the cobalt supply chain. Using cobalt-related data from 2003 to 2022, the study employs multiple regression to identify the influence of key risk factors and further applies Monte Carlo simulation to quantitatively evaluate the probability of cobalt supply chain disruptions, thereby measuring the vulnerability of the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the supply chain. Research shows that: (1) Currently, China still faces issues of high risk shocks and weak response capabilities leading to supply chain vulnerability, In 2022, the vulnerability levels of the cobalt supply chain in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors were as high as 23.626%, 18.998%, and 16.216%, The security situation of cobalt resource supply is increasingly severe, and the vulnerability of the supply chain as a whole is on the increase. (2) The upstream sector of China’s cobalt supply chain demonstrates the highest vulnerability, while the downstream sector shows the lowest. Risks are predominantly concentrated in the raw ore mining stage, with external risk shocks being the primary cause of vulnerability in the cobalt supply chain. (3) Simulation predictions indicate that if the current vulnerability trend persists, the probability of supply disruptions in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors by 2029 could reach as high as 86.634%, 66.124%, and 63.087%, respectively. Based on the research findings, this study proposes a two-pronged strategy focusing on both “shock” and “response” to ensure supply chain security: For the upstream sector, it is essential to proactively secure high-quality overseas resources and encourage investment diversification to mitigate external risk impacts. For the downstream sector, efforts must be accelerated to establish a management system for recycling secondary cobalt resources and vigorously promote technological innovation and substitution research. This will reduce dependence on primary cobalt and fundamentally enhance the risk resistance and recovery of the entire supply chain.