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<p>Lithium is a critical mineral in the global energy market, with growing demand across medical, nuclear, and energy industries. This study analyzes the economic potential and global demand for lithium, focusing on the Falchani Project (Carabaya, Peru), to determine Peru’s positioning in the global lithium market (2025–2030) and identify socio-environmental challenges associated with its exploitation. Using mixed methods (descriptive analysis and predictive modeling), including econometric and statistical techniques, the research projects resources, global positioning, production, phases, and social issues. The results indicate significant growth potential for the Falchani Project. The econometric model, despite some limitations due to multicollinearity, suggests that Peru could increase its share of global lithium resources from 0.24% in 2019 to 10.66% by 2030, as recognized by the USGS, elevating Peru’s position as the fourth-largest holder of lithium resources worldwide by 2030, after Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile. The statistical models also project growth in lithium-related scientific publications across various databases, with notable increases in both economic and technological research areas. Production projections show a gradual increase from 25,000 tons annually in the first 6 years to 80,000 tons in the subsequent 6 years, reaching 152,000 tons annually from year 13 onward, with a total of 3 phases over 36.5 years. However, this growth is accompanied by projected increases in socio-environmental conflicts, estimated to grow from 11.67% in 2025 to 38.35% by 2030, highlighting the need for careful management of social and environmental impacts.</p>

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Analysis of the potential, productive and socio-environmental projections of the falchani project-Perú for the period 2025–2030

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月23日

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  • Alexander Darío Huamán Ccorahua,
  • Jhonatan Raphael Rojas Ventura,
  • Franklin Aguirre Huillcas,
  • Nelson Meza Peña

摘要

Lithium is a critical mineral in the global energy market, with growing demand across medical, nuclear, and energy industries. This study analyzes the economic potential and global demand for lithium, focusing on the Falchani Project (Carabaya, Peru), to determine Peru’s positioning in the global lithium market (2025–2030) and identify socio-environmental challenges associated with its exploitation. Using mixed methods (descriptive analysis and predictive modeling), including econometric and statistical techniques, the research projects resources, global positioning, production, phases, and social issues. The results indicate significant growth potential for the Falchani Project. The econometric model, despite some limitations due to multicollinearity, suggests that Peru could increase its share of global lithium resources from 0.24% in 2019 to 10.66% by 2030, as recognized by the USGS, elevating Peru’s position as the fourth-largest holder of lithium resources worldwide by 2030, after Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile. The statistical models also project growth in lithium-related scientific publications across various databases, with notable increases in both economic and technological research areas. Production projections show a gradual increase from 25,000 tons annually in the first 6 years to 80,000 tons in the subsequent 6 years, reaching 152,000 tons annually from year 13 onward, with a total of 3 phases over 36.5 years. However, this growth is accompanied by projected increases in socio-environmental conflicts, estimated to grow from 11.67% in 2025 to 38.35% by 2030, highlighting the need for careful management of social and environmental impacts.