Determinants of critical raw material imports: The case of the European Union and China
摘要
In 2019, the European Union (EU) launched a growth strategy called the Green Deal with the aim to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Green transformation assumes using new technologies, such as li-ion batteries, fuel cells, etc., which are dependent on industrial raw materials. As the occurrence of these mineral resources is limited in the EU, the EU must import them. The literature has focused especially on the issue of the so-called critical raw materials (CRMs). Although their definition and lists differ, they have a similar character. In the EU, the list of CRMs includes 34 high-tech minerals, and it has been confirmed by several studies that many of them are imported from China. Although the EU announced limiting its dependence on raw materials from outside countries, the EU will never be self-sufficient in raw materials. Based on this, we focus on the determinants of the growth of imports of CRMs from China. Using data from 2000–2023, besides the growth of the EU gross domestic product (GDP) and the growth of the share of industry in the EU’s GDP, we find that the increase of the share of CRMs in China’s total exports will have a positive impact on the growth of the EU’s imports of CRMs from China. For the sake of ensuring its supply of strategic resources, we propose that the EU should sign a preferential trade and investment agreement with China.