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<p>As the polar ice is melting and the Suez- and Panama Canal experience reduced availability due to political instability and drought, the relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a shipping lane between Europe and Asia becomes more significant. Previous studies have examined the possibilities of NSR transits; however, shipping stakeholders’ perceived risks and opportunities regarding the NSR have gotten less attention. The purpose of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of the relevant factors influencing the decisions of Norwegian shipping stakeholders regarding the use of the NSR. An abductive approach has been taken for this study, with qualitative data collection through semi-structured in-depth interviews. This study concludes that the following are the perceived risk elements: being trapped in ice, drift-ice collision, difficulty with search and rescue (SAR), the short season, and being reliant on Russia. This study concludes that the only universally agreed upon perceived opportunity for considering the NSR is the reduction in sailing distance. In contrast to previous studies, the findings of this research reveal that stakeholders do not consider the following factors as risks: the shallow straits on the NSR, insurance costs, increased operating expenditure (OPEX) incurred by the crew, icebreaker fees, and disputes over the legal status of the NSR. Moreover, unlike previous studies, the findings of this study do not support the idea that using NSR can enhance reputation and help shipping companies gain competitive advantages.</p>

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The risks and opportunities of sailing the Northern sea route- a Norwegian stakeholder perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月12日

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  • Henrik Aslesen,
  • Amund Fagereng,
  • Naima Saeed

摘要

As the polar ice is melting and the Suez- and Panama Canal experience reduced availability due to political instability and drought, the relevance of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a shipping lane between Europe and Asia becomes more significant. Previous studies have examined the possibilities of NSR transits; however, shipping stakeholders’ perceived risks and opportunities regarding the NSR have gotten less attention. The purpose of this study is to obtain a deeper understanding of the relevant factors influencing the decisions of Norwegian shipping stakeholders regarding the use of the NSR. An abductive approach has been taken for this study, with qualitative data collection through semi-structured in-depth interviews. This study concludes that the following are the perceived risk elements: being trapped in ice, drift-ice collision, difficulty with search and rescue (SAR), the short season, and being reliant on Russia. This study concludes that the only universally agreed upon perceived opportunity for considering the NSR is the reduction in sailing distance. In contrast to previous studies, the findings of this research reveal that stakeholders do not consider the following factors as risks: the shallow straits on the NSR, insurance costs, increased operating expenditure (OPEX) incurred by the crew, icebreaker fees, and disputes over the legal status of the NSR. Moreover, unlike previous studies, the findings of this study do not support the idea that using NSR can enhance reputation and help shipping companies gain competitive advantages.