<p>The transport sector significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily due to its reliance on fossil fuels. This paper investigates the potential and impacts of using alternative fuels in Serbia. By applying the conservative and optimistic approach, the potential for 2030 and 2050 for feedstocks originating from agriculture, the food industry, the commercial sector, municipal sector, and forestry. This paper sets out to determine the potential of feedstocks to produce alternative fuels, such as biomethane, lignocellulosic bioethanol, hydrotreated vegetable oil, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels. Results indicate that the total potential of all feedstocks is about 7.6 and 10.2&#xa0;million tons (Mt) of fresh mass (2.2 and 3.1 Mt of dry mass) for 2030 in the conservative and optimistic approach, respectively. For the year 2050, the estimated potential is approximately 10.9 and 14.9 Mt of fresh mass (2.8 and 4.0 Mt of dry mass) in the conservative and optimistic approach, respectively. In 2030, the energy potential of alternative fuels is projected to reach 402 and 571 kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe) under the two approaches, respectively. By 2050, this potential is estimated to increase to about 523 and 759 ktoe. The determined potential of alternative fuels could meet up to 23% of Serbia’s estimated transport energy needs in 2030 and up to 35% in 2050, potentially reducing GHG emissions by 28% and by 62% respectively. The targets set for 2030 can be comfortably achieved without using renewable electricity, which would be necessary, though, in 2050.</p>

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Alternative fuels’ potential to decarbonize the transport sector in Serbia

  • Aleksandar Nesterovic,
  • Djordje Djatkov,
  • Miodrag Viskovic,
  • Milan Martinov

摘要

The transport sector significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily due to its reliance on fossil fuels. This paper investigates the potential and impacts of using alternative fuels in Serbia. By applying the conservative and optimistic approach, the potential for 2030 and 2050 for feedstocks originating from agriculture, the food industry, the commercial sector, municipal sector, and forestry. This paper sets out to determine the potential of feedstocks to produce alternative fuels, such as biomethane, lignocellulosic bioethanol, hydrotreated vegetable oil, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels. Results indicate that the total potential of all feedstocks is about 7.6 and 10.2 million tons (Mt) of fresh mass (2.2 and 3.1 Mt of dry mass) for 2030 in the conservative and optimistic approach, respectively. For the year 2050, the estimated potential is approximately 10.9 and 14.9 Mt of fresh mass (2.8 and 4.0 Mt of dry mass) in the conservative and optimistic approach, respectively. In 2030, the energy potential of alternative fuels is projected to reach 402 and 571 kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe) under the two approaches, respectively. By 2050, this potential is estimated to increase to about 523 and 759 ktoe. The determined potential of alternative fuels could meet up to 23% of Serbia’s estimated transport energy needs in 2030 and up to 35% in 2050, potentially reducing GHG emissions by 28% and by 62% respectively. The targets set for 2030 can be comfortably achieved without using renewable electricity, which would be necessary, though, in 2050.