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<p>Emergency department (ED) visits within 30&#xa0;days following a surgical procedure are a critical quality metric in US hospitals, representing both a significant cost burden and a risk to patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify preoperative factors that predict the likelihood of a 30-day postoperative ED visit following bariatric surgery. The research was conducted in three phases: First, a panel of experts participated in a Delphi study to identify key preoperative factors. Nine out of 33 preoperative factors were selected for further analysis. The second phase involved a quantitative analysis of data from the 2019 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) Participant Use Data File, which included 193,774 cases from 868 MBSAQIP-accredited centers. Of these cases, 15,533 (8%) resulted in a 30-day postoperative ED visit without subsequent inpatient admission. Hypothesis testing using binary logistic regression found eight of the nine variables to be statistically significant predictors of 30-day postoperative ED visits. A predictive model was developed involving eight factors. In the third phase, the same experts reviewed and validated the model. Healthcare providers can use the model to determine the probability of a patient’s likelihood of returning to ED after a bariatric surgery and implement targeted interventions to reduce the likelihood of 30-day postoperative ED visits.</p>

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Identifying Preoperative Risk Factors for 30-Day Emergency Department Visits After Bariatric Surgery: A Predictive Model Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月19日

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  • Pawan Bhandari,
  • M. Affan Badar,
  • Christopher J. Kluse,
  • Suhansa Rodchua

摘要

Emergency department (ED) visits within 30 days following a surgical procedure are a critical quality metric in US hospitals, representing both a significant cost burden and a risk to patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify preoperative factors that predict the likelihood of a 30-day postoperative ED visit following bariatric surgery. The research was conducted in three phases: First, a panel of experts participated in a Delphi study to identify key preoperative factors. Nine out of 33 preoperative factors were selected for further analysis. The second phase involved a quantitative analysis of data from the 2019 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) Participant Use Data File, which included 193,774 cases from 868 MBSAQIP-accredited centers. Of these cases, 15,533 (8%) resulted in a 30-day postoperative ED visit without subsequent inpatient admission. Hypothesis testing using binary logistic regression found eight of the nine variables to be statistically significant predictors of 30-day postoperative ED visits. A predictive model was developed involving eight factors. In the third phase, the same experts reviewed and validated the model. Healthcare providers can use the model to determine the probability of a patient’s likelihood of returning to ED after a bariatric surgery and implement targeted interventions to reduce the likelihood of 30-day postoperative ED visits.